Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s College Basketball slate.
7 p.m. ET: Princeton at Yale (-3, 140.5)
Princeton (15-2) just saw their six-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Cornell 83-68. Meanwhile, Yale (13-6) has won six straight game and just brushed aside Harvard 78-65. This line opened with Yale listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is Yale favored if Princeton has the far better won-loss record? Of course, we have to apply home court advantage to the line. However, shouldn’t the “better” team be favored? If it doesn’t make sense, there is often a reason for it. The public is grabbing the points with trendy dog Princeton. However, despite only receiving 45% of bets we’ve seen Yale move from -2.5 to -3. Some shops have even touched -3.5. This signals smart money embracing the fishy contrarian home favorite. Yale has the edge in defensive efficiency (101st vs 139th) and offensive rebound percentage (30% vs 26%). Ken Pom has Yale winning by one point (70-69). Yale is -155 on the moneyline. Ivy League home favorites are 6-2 (75%) straight up in conference play this season.
9 p.m. ET: Butler at Creighton (-10.5, 147.5)
Butler (14-7) has won three straight and just outlasted Villanova 88-81 in double overtime. Similarly, Creighton (16-5, ranked 13th) has won three straight and just crushed Depaul 85-62. This line opened with Creighton listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the big spread and currently 60% of bets laying the points with Creighton at home, expecting a double-digit victory. This lopsided support has driven Creighton up from -9.5 to -10.5. Butler has excellent buy-low inflated line value with a notable Ken Pom edge. Butler is contrarian in the most heavily bet game of the night, receiving only 40% of bets. Butler is also a buy-low unranked team against a sell-high ranked team (roughly 54% ATS over the past two seasons) as well as a conference dog in a rivalry matchup. Ken Pom has Creighton winning by eight points (76-68), which provides actionable value to Butler +10.5. Butler also has value as a “dog who can score” averaging 81 PPG, which means they have the firepower to keep pace and open up the possibility for a back-door cover. Butler has the better offensive rebounding percentage (29 vs 27) and free throw percentage (78 vs 76) as well.
