Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s 19-game College Basketball slate.
7 p.m. ET: Lamar at Southeastern Louisiana (-1.5, 144.5)
Lamar (14-11) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games but just crushed New Orleans 94-72. Meanwhile, Southeastern Louisiana (13-13) has won six straight games and just edged Houston Christian 81-78. This line opened at a pick’em. Pros have sided with red-hot Southeastern Louisiana, steaming the home team up from a pick’em to -1.5. Some shops are even showing -2. This line move is especially notable because this is an added or extra game with a Vegas ID/rotation number of 306635-306636. This means that it’s a tiny game the public has no interest in and can’t even find on their app (bettors need to click an additional tab that says “more NCAAB” in order to locate the game). As a result, if you see a line move in games like this it is almost exclusively driven by pro bettors who have targeted the game and taken a position. Southeastern Louisiana is receiving 60% of spread bets but 70% of spread dollars, further evidence of the biggest sharper wagers in their favor. Ken Pom has Southeastern Louisiana winning by one point (72-71). As a result, bettors would be wise to play Southeastern Louisiana on the moneyline (-125) for fear of not covering a 1-point win. Southeastern Louisiana is 8-2 at home while Lamar is just 2-10 on the road. This is a revenge spot for Southeastern Louisiana, who lost to Lamar 74-64 on the road in late January. This is also a schedule spot edge for Southeastern Louisiana, who is playing their second straight home game while Lamar is playing their third straight road game.
7 p.m. ET: Virginia at Virginia Tech (-3.5, 126.5)
Virginia (20-6, ranked 21st) has won nine of their last ten games and just edged Wake Forest 49-47. On the other hand, Virginia Tech (14-11) has lost four of their last five games and just fell to North Carolina 96-81. This line opened with Virginia Tech listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is Virginia Tech favored if they have the worse record, are unranked and have played so poorly recently? If it doesn’t make sense, there is usually a reason for it. Pros have embraced the fishy home favorite, steaming Virginia Tech up from -2.5 to -3.5. Virginia Tech is receiving 45% of spread bets but 70% of spread dollars, signaling a sharp contrarian bet split with wiseguy reverse line movement. Virginia Tech will lean on their offensive advantage, averaging 75 PPG compared to 65 PPG for Virginia. The Hokies are far better in terms of offensive efficiency (47th vs 145th), effective field goal percentage (54% vs 51%) and enjoy a huge edge at the free throw stripe (80% vs 64%), which could prove crucial in a tight game. Ken Pom has Virginia Tech winning by three points (65-62). Those looking to protect themselves in a tight game that may not cover the number could instead target the Hokies on the moneyline at -165. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 20-13 SU (61%) this season and 63-26 SU (71%) since the start of last season. Virginia Tech is 11-2 at home. Virginia is just 4-4 on the road. ACC home favorites are 53-19 SU (74%) in conference play this season. This is also a revenge game for the Hokies, who lost to the Cavs 65-57 on the road back in mid-January.
