Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s College Basketball slate.
7 p.m. ET: Wake Forest at North Carolina (-8.5, 156.5)
Wake Forest (13-5) is unranked but just crushed Louisville 90-65. On the flip side, North Carolina (15-3) is ranked 4th, has won eight straight games and just beat Boston College 76-66. This line opened with North Carolina listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the highly ranked Tar Heels at home. However, despite receiving 81% of bets we’ve seen North Carolina remain frozen at -8.5. This line even dipped to -8 at times. This signals liability on the road dog Demon Deacons, with sharps leaning toward grabbing the points not laying them. Wake Forest is only receiving 19% of bets in the most heavily bet game of the day, making the Demon Deacons the top contrarian play. Wake Forest is only getting 19% of bets but 40% of money, indicating a sharp contrarian bet split. Wake Forest has buy-low value as an unranked conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent, with the built in familiarity and “rivalry” aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Wake Forest is also a “dog who can score,” averaging 81 PPG, which gives Wake a better opportunity to keep pace or back door cover. Wake Forest has the better effective field goal percentage (55 vs 52), better three point percentage (39 vs 36) and better free throw percentage (80 vs 76).
9 p.m. ET: Weber State at Montana (-1.5, 144.5)
Weber State (12-7) just snapped a three-game losing streak with an 88-65 win over Idaho. Meanwhile, Montana (12-6) has won ten of their last twelve games and just brushed aside Montana State 87-77. This line opened with Montana listed as a short 1-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the points with the home team, steaming Montana up from -1 to -1.5. Some shops are even inching up toward -2. Montana is receiving 67% of spread bets and 72% of spread money. This may appear to be a popular “public play,” however this is a smaller, late game and the public tends to bet games later on game day. So it’s likely this lopsided betting represents a majority of wiseguys who have located an edge on Montana. Ken Pom has Montana winning by three points (75-72). Montana ranks 72nd in offensive efficiency compared to 84th for Weber State. Montana also has the edge in rebounding (36 RPG vs 34 RPG) as well as a better percentage at the free throw line (78 vs 76). Montana is 7-2 at home while Weber State is just 3-4 on the road. Those looking to follow the sharp Montana move but wary of laying 2-points in what the oddmakers expect to be a tight game could instead target Montana on the moneyline at -120. Montana is receiving 61% of moneyline bets but 87% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
