Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s loaded College Basketball slate.
7 p.m. ET: Le Moyne at Wagner (-3, 131.5)
Le Moyne (9-11) has won three straight games and just brushed aside LIU 87-74. On the flip side, Wagner (9-10) has lost three straight and just fell to Central Connecticut 69-68 in overtime. This line opened with Wagner listed as a 2-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the short chalk, steaming Wagner up from -2 to -3. This move is especially notable because this is a tiny added game/extra game (306541/206542). These are the games the public has no interest in and can’t even find on their betting app (you need to click a special tab like “more CBB” to find these obscure low bet games). So we know that if the line is moving toward Wagner, it was caused by pro money that targeted the game despite it being such an unpopular and overlooked matchup. Wagner has a big defensive advantage, ranking 231st in defensive efficiency while Le Moyne ranks 326th. Wagner also has a higher offensive rebounding percentage (28% vs 24%). Ken Pom has Wagner winning by four points (67-63). Pros seem to prefer playing Wagner on the moneyline at -135, as 69% of moneyline bets but 95% of moneyline dollars are in favor of the home team. Wagner is 5-2 at home. Le Moyne is 3-9 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Youngstown State at Wright State (-2.5, 164.5)
Youngstown State (16-6) has won three straight games and just crushed Northern Kentucky 82-52. Similarly, Wright State (12-10) has also won three straight and just took down IUPUI 83-76. This line opened with Wright State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket split we’ve seen Wright State get juiced up to -2.5 at -115. Some shops have even inched up to -3. This signals sneaky sharp liability on Wright State laying the short chalk at home. Wright State will lean on their offense, averaging 86 PPG vs 82 PPG for Youngstown State. Wright State is ranked 32nd in offensive efficiency compared to 124th for Youngstown. Wright State also has better effective field goal percentage (59% vs 51%) and better three-point shooting (39% vs 33%). Sharps have particularly targeted Wright State on the moneyline at -140. Wright State is getting 42% of moneyline bets but 92% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has Wright State winning by one point (84-83), which provides further support for playing the moneyline and not laying the spread. This is a revenge spot for Wright State, who lost to Youngstown State on the road 81-71 in early January. Wright State is 6-3 at home. Youngstown State is 5-5 on the road.
