College basketball best bets and projections
We’re having a solid week so far, going a combined 4-1 on men’s and women’s basketball plays since Monday. Let’s keep the momentum rolling as we get into this beautifully-packed Wednesday slate, with over 90 combined men’s and women’s games. As I’ve mentioned, expect just 2-3 men’s plays from me on a given day and probably a handful of women’s plays on bigger slates to maximize our edge – which has been unsurprisingly better on the women’s side of things, so be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex to get those plays as I make them. Now, for today’s projections and college basketball best bets.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, January 24th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Alabama | Auburn | 3.9 | 161.3 |
| American | Holy Cross | 12.9 | 143.9 |
| Arkansas | Mississippi | -5.3 | 151.7 |
| Army | Boston University | -5.3 | 123.6 |
| Bradley | Murray State | 12.4 | 141.3 |
| Bucknell | Navy | 1.5 | 134.3 |
| Central Arkansas | Queens (NC) | -7.6 | 157.0 |
| Charleston Southern | Winthrop | -6.0 | 145.7 |
| Chattanooga | Wofford | -0.2 | 152.9 |
| Coastal Carolina | Southern Mississippi | 3.1 | 147.0 |
| Colorado | Washington | 2.1 | 156.3 |
| Colorado State | Nevada | 1.2 | 146.8 |
| Davidson | Saint Louis | 3.4 | 146.9 |
| DePaul | Marquette | -18.2 | 144.3 |
| Drake | Missouri State | 6.6 | 143.6 |
| East Carolina | Wichita State | -4.5 | 143.4 |
| East Tennessee State | Virginia Military Institute | 4.0 | 150.3 |
| Florida | Mississippi State | 2.0 | 153.0 |
| Florida Atlantic | Rice | 15.5 | 154.2 |
| Fordham | Rhode Island | -2.3 | 152.7 |
| Furman | Samford | 0.4 | 165.2 |
| Gardner-Webb | Longwood | -7.1 | 140.7 |
| George Washington | Richmond | -7.1 | 149.4 |
| Georgia | Louisiana State | 2.7 | 146.7 |
| Georgia State | Marshall | -4.4 | 151.4 |
| High Point | South Carolina Upstate | 10.6 | 154.0 |
| Illinois | Northwestern | 7.4 | 145.7 |
| Illinois-Chicago | Indiana State | -10.4 | 147.6 |
| Iowa | Maryland | 6.9 | 149.5 |
| Iowa State | Kansas State | 14.1 | 141.2 |
| Jacksonville State | Middle Tennessee | 2.7 | 122.0 |
| James Madison | Old Dominion | 15.7 | 155.1 |
| Kennesaw State | North Alabama | 6.3 | 162.6 |
| Lafayette | Loyola (MD) | 2.1 | 132.2 |
| Mercer | The Citadel | -5.4 | 136.1 |
| Miami (FL) | Notre Dame | 6.8 | 140.4 |
| NC State | Virginia | -4.1 | 132.5 |
| New Mexico | San Jose State | 11.1 | 151.8 |
| Providence | Seton Hall | -0.7 | 141.3 |
| Radford | UNC Asheville | -1.7 | 146.6 |
| South Florida | Temple | 1.4 | 143.7 |
| Southern Illinois | Valparaiso | 15.9 | 135.2 |
| St. John’s (NY) | Villanova | 3.1 | 144.5 |
| Texas State | Troy | -10.2 | 138.8 |
| Tulane | UTSA | 11.9 | 175.0 |
| UNC Greensboro | Western Carolina | 3.2 | 138.1 |
| Utah | Washington State | 1.4 | 145.9 |
Bets:
James Madison -7.5
Jacksonville State +1.5
UNC Greensboro +2.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | Wyoming | -11.5 | 125.4 |
| Akron | Western Michigan | 0.8 | 128.3 |
| American | Holy Cross | -16.3 | 123.5 |
| Army | Boston University | -7.0 | 128.7 |
| Ball State | Miami (OH) | 23.0 | 122.2 |
| Boise State | Nevada-Las Vegas | -14.5 | 135.7 |
| Bowling Green State | Buffalo | -1.3 | 132.6 |
| Bucknell | Navy | 3.4 | 125.0 |
| Butler | Xavier | 9.9 | 116.4 |
| Central Arkansas | Queens (NC) | 22.7 | 128.1 |
| Central Michigan | Ohio | 1.6 | 133.3 |
| Charleston Southern | Winthrop | -3.1 | 119.0 |
| Cincinnati | Oklahoma State | -6.3 | 130.3 |
| Creighton | Georgetown | 8.7 | 124.7 |
| Davidson | Massachusetts | 25.4 | 128.9 |
| Dayton | Virginia Commonwealth | -14.4 | 122.8 |
| Detroit Mercy | Robert Morris | 2.8 | 121.0 |
| Duquesne | Richmond | -8.9 | 140.5 |
| Eastern Michigan | Kent State | -22.3 | 128.9 |
| Fordham | Loyola (IL) | 3.1 | 127.3 |
| Fresno State | New Mexico | -4.3 | 129.2 |
| Gardner-Webb | Longwood | -2.7 | 144.4 |
| George Mason | George Washington | 14.1 | 125.4 |
| Georgia Southern | Georgia State | 5.9 | 144.8 |
| Green Bay | IUPUI | 27.3 | 137.2 |
| High Point | South Carolina Upstate | 6.1 | 129.0 |
| Houston | Texas Tech | -5.9 | 133.8 |
| Iowa State | Kansas | -2.4 | 137.5 |
| Jacksonville State | Middle Tennessee | -20.2 | 125.6 |
| James Madison | Marshall | 0.4 | 151.8 |
| Kennesaw State | North Alabama | -2.5 | 134.5 |
| La Salle | Rhode Island | -16.6 | 125.6 |
| Lafayette | Loyola (MD) | 1.8 | 118.4 |
| Maryland | Michigan | -1.0 | 139.0 |
| Michigan State | Purdue | 18.9 | 142.8 |
| North Texas | Tulane | 11.7 | 133.0 |
| Northern Illinois | Toledo | -18.8 | 125.2 |
| Northern Kentucky | Youngstown State | -4.1 | 130.3 |
| Oklahoma | Texas | -24.8 | 148.0 |
| Providence | Villanova | -6.3 | 118.7 |
| Radford | UNC Asheville | 2.3 | 116.4 |
| Rice | Tulsa | -0.8 | 133.3 |
| Saint Joseph’s | St. Bonaventure | 18.4 | 125.9 |
| San Diego State | Utah State | 14.9 | 131.9 |
| Southern Methodist | Temple | 0.6 | 137.5 |
