College basketball best bets and projections
We finally had a losing day this week, bringing our streak to a halt (barely), as men’s hoops went 1-2 and women’s bets went 3-3 yesterday; however, we’re still way up on the week and up for the season, which is the name of the game. Men’s bets now sit at 65-56-1 on the season, with women’s bets going 110-77 so far for a very profitable college basketball season through January. We are back today with a huge slate of men’s and women’s games, so make sure to manage your bankroll if (when) you bet higher volume on these larger slate days. Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s best bets as soon as I make them
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, February 1st:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Northeastern | Towson | -12.6 | 133.3 |
| North Alabama | Stetson | -4.8 | 150.3 |
| Marshall | Old Dominion | 3.9 | 149.4 |
| Cal State Bakersfield | Long Beach State | 1.7 | 148.1 |
| Morehead State | Tennessee State | -1.2 | 142.9 |
| Arizona State | Stanford | -3.6 | 147.2 |
| Oregon State | UCLA | -5.6 | 133.6 |
| Idaho | Montana | -18.9 | 143.5 |
| Cal State Northridge | UC San Diego | -14.3 | 146.9 |
| Appalachian State | Georgia State | 9.7 | 144.8 |
| Youngstown State | Wright State | 1.7 | 158.7 |
| Cleveland State | Detroit Mercy | 11.6 | 147.2 |
| Le Moyne | Wagner | 1.0 | 136.0 |
| Green Bay | IUPUI | 16.1 | 136.5 |
| Sacred Heart | Stonehill | 14.3 | 144.4 |
| High Point | Longwood | 9.2 | 149.7 |
| Omaha | St. Thomas | 1.1 | 138.0 |
| Arizona | California | 15.4 | 158.1 |
| Central Arkansas | Florida Gulf Coast | -5.5 | 146.4 |
| Texas-Rio Grande Valley | Utah Tech | -2.1 | 151.2 |
| UC Davis | UC Santa Barbara | -6.7 | 144.6 |
| Lindenwood | Western Illinois | -6.7 | 134.4 |
| Cal Poly | UC Irvine | -16.1 | 136.3 |
| Nebraska | Wisconsin | -4.1 | 146.1 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | Long Island University | 11.1 | 151.3 |
| Central Connecticut State | Saint Francis (PA) | 15.6 | 139.5 |
| Little Rock | Southern Illinois-Edwardsville | -5.0 | 147.8 |
| South Alabama | Texas State | 0.0 | 141.8 |
| Oregon | Southern California | 4.3 | 150.4 |
| Binghamton | NJIT | 4.8 | 143.2 |
| Milwaukee | Purdue Fort Wayne | -5.7 | 160.0 |
| Hampton | North Carolina A&T | -2.9 | 154.9 |
| Georgia Southern | Troy | -7.0 | 148.5 |
| Pacific | Portland | -0.6 | 150.3 |
| Northern Arizona | Weber State | -5.2 | 139.7 |
| North Dakota State | South Dakota State | -7.7 | 154.1 |
| Stephen F. Austin | Utah Valley | 8.3 | 143.1 |
| Coastal Carolina | James Madison | -17.8 | 155.7 |
| Eastern Washington | Montana State | 2.0 | 150.5 |
| Maine | Massachusetts-Lowell | -9.8 | 137.8 |
| Southern Indiana | Tennessee Tech | -1.2 | 138.9 |
| Bellarmine | Kennesaw State | -9.6 | 152.0 |
| Eastern Illinois | Tennessee-Martin | -0.4 | 149.1 |
| San Diego | San Francisco | -17.4 | 144.7 |
| Sam Houston State | Western Kentucky | -5.6 | 150.8 |
| Grand Canyon | Seattle | 10.4 | 144.2 |
| Delaware | William & Mary | 5.4 | 146.3 |
| College of Charleston | UNC Wilmington | 5.4 | 154.0 |
| Liberty | New Mexico State | 6.3 | 137.8 |
| Jacksonville State | UTEP | -2.7 | 131.7 |
| Southern Methodist | Tulane | 9.2 | 155.6 |
| Idaho State | Northern Colorado | -8.8 | 151.3 |
| Drexel | Monmouth | 5.1 | 139.1 |
| Hofstra | Stony Brook | 6.4 | 146.5 |
| Southern Utah | UT Arlington | 1.9 | 154.0 |
| Cal State Fullerton | Hawaii | 1.9 | 135.3 |
| Denver | Kansas City | -2.9 | 157.0 |
| Abilene Christian | Tarleton State | 1.8 | 143.0 |
| North Dakota | South Dakota | 2.2 | 151.8 |
| Florida International | Louisiana Tech | -7.2 | 147.8 |
| Campbell | Elon | -2.3 | 142.7 |
| Oakland | Robert Morris | 9.3 | 150.7 |
| Bryant | Maryland-Baltimore County | 10.8 | 158.9 |
| Eastern Kentucky | Queens (NC) | 5.3 | 155.7 |
| Albany (NY) | Vermont | -11.5 | 148.7 |
Bets:
Old Dominion +10.5
Towson -6.5
Cal State Bakersfield +3.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Abilene Christian | Tarleton State | 9.6 | 132.0 |
| Alabama | Arkansas | -6.5 | 133.1 |
| Albany (NY) | Vermont | -1.1 | 117.4 |
| Auburn | South Carolina | -22.0 | 130.9 |
| Austin Peay | Kennesaw State | 0.2 | 118.9 |
| Baylor | Texas | -7.4 | 140.4 |
| Binghamton | NJIT | 8.2 | 132.2 |
| Boston College | Clemson | -6.6 | 142.2 |
| Bryant | Maryland-Baltimore County | 5.9 | 129.1 |
| Cal Poly | UC Irvine | -5.8 | 124.0 |
| Cal State Bakersfield | Long Beach State | -6.3 | 133.4 |
| Cal State Northridge | UC San Diego | -8.2 | 120.5 |
| Central Arkansas | Jacksonville | 10.4 | 130.8 |
| Central Connecticut State | Saint Francis (PA) | 1.8 | 128.0 |
| Chattanooga | Wofford | 9.1 | 123.9 |
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia Southern | 0.4 | 142.8 |
| Denver | Kansas City | 0.0 | 126.6 |
| Duke | Pittsburgh | 22.2 | 125.7 |
| East Carolina | Tulsa | -2.5 | 132.7 |
| East Tennessee State | Furman | 7.0 | 126.3 |
| Eastern Illinois | Tennessee-Martin | 4.7 | 125.0 |
| Eastern Washington | Montana State | 13.1 | 124.6 |
| Fairfield | Rider | 24.9 | 131.8 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | Long Island University | 1.3 | 127.6 |
| Florida International | Louisiana Tech | 0.3 | 127.8 |
| Georgia | Tennessee | -9.9 | 136.0 |
| Georgia Tech | Notre Dame | -13.8 | 137.0 |
| Gonzaga | San Diego | 26.8 | 136.9 |
| Grand Canyon | Seattle | 20.1 | 131.4 |
| Houston Christian | New Orleans | -6.9 | 122.7 |
| Idaho | Montana | -11.8 | 129.7 |
| Idaho State | Northern Colorado | 1.9 | 122.3 |
| Incarnate Word | Southeastern Louisiana | 0.1 | 115.5 |
| Iona | Mount St. Mary’s | -1.6 | 120.9 |
| Jacksonville State | UTEP | -5.4 | 131.6 |
| Kentucky | Mississippi State | -18.3 | 140.1 |
| Le Moyne | Wagner | 18.2 | 125.6 |
| Liberty | New Mexico State | 3.1 | 125.8 |
| Lindenwood | Western Illinois | 0.5 | 137.5 |
| Lipscomb | Queens (NC) | 11.4 | 132.1 |
| Little Rock | Southern Illinois-Edwardsville | 7.9 | 128.8 |
| Louisiana | Southern Mississippi | -6.2 | 123.7 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Troy | 1.3 | 149.4 |
| Louisville | Syracuse | 6.6 | 138.4 |
| Loyola Marymount | Santa Clara | -4.4 | 127.3 |
| Maine | Massachusetts-Lowell | 19.8 | 125.3 |
| Manhattan | Siena | -5.9 | 126.7 |
| Marist | Quinnipiac | 4.2 | 128.6 |
| McNeese State | Texas A&M-Commerce | -11.2 | 149.4 |
| Memphis | South Florida | 0.7 | 127.9 |
| Miami (FL) | Wake Forest | 13.0 | 124.1 |
| Mississippi | Vanderbilt | 0.4 | 127.0 |
| Morehead State | Tennessee State | 4.2 | 132.9 |
| NC State | North Carolina | 9.3 | 132.7 |
| Niagara | Saint Peter’s | 14.0 | 131.6 |
| Nicholls State | Northwestern State | 1.3 | 120.1 |
| North Alabama | North Florida | 8.3 | 139.8 |
| North Dakota | South Dakota | -3.9 | 137.0 |
| North Dakota State | South Dakota State | -6.8 | 130.2 |
| Northern Arizona | Weber State | 5.4 | 140.5 |
| Ohio State | Wisconsin | 21.9 | 132.1 |
| Omaha | St. Thomas | -12.7 | 146.8 |
| Pacific | Portland | -2.9 | 135.5 |
| Pepperdine | San Francisco | -18.8 | 128.1 |
| Sacred Heart | Stonehill | 11.3 | 127.8 |
| Sam Houston | Western Kentucky | -12.1 | 133.9 |
| Southern Indiana | Tennessee Tech | 3.1 | 131.7 |
| Southern Utah | UT Arlington | -7.5 | 138.0 |
| Stephen F. Austin | Utah Valley | 5.7 | 130.1 |
| Texas-Rio Grande Valley | Utah Tech | -5.4 | 134.2 |
| UC Davis | UC Santa Barbara | -4.2 | 130.4 |
| Virginia | Virginia Tech | -9.8 | 139.4 |
