College basketball best bets and projections
Another close, disappointing loss on a bet last night gave us another split, going 1-1 on the day in men’s with no women’s action due to a small slate with sharper lines. Today’s slate for both men’s and women’s is much more palatable, so let’s hope to find some winners and get back on a run like we had a couple of weeks ago. Be sure to follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get women’s plays as soon as I bet them personally.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, February 14th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| American | Navy | 2.0 | 136.4 |
| Arizona State | Oregon State | 4.3 | 138.6 |
| Arkansas | Tennessee | -9.1 | 150.5 |
| Army | Boston University | -1.6 | 128.8 |
| Auburn | South Carolina | 7.3 | 144.0 |
| Belmont | Southern Illinois | 1.9 | 150.6 |
| Bradley | Illinois-Chicago | 10.0 | 142.0 |
| Charleston Southern | Gardner-Webb | -3.9 | 141.9 |
| Chattanooga | East Tennessee State | 8.9 | 142.6 |
| Chicago State | Eastern Kentucky | -4.1 | 146.0 |
| Clemson | Miami (FL) | 6.6 | 151.2 |
| Cleveland State | Milwaukee | 4.4 | 154.4 |
| Colgate | Holy Cross | 20.9 | 142.2 |
| Connecticut | DePaul | 29.1 | 144.0 |
| Detroit Mercy | IUPUI | 6.5 | 139.5 |
| Fordham | St. Bonaventure | -5.9 | 146.6 |
| Fresno State | Nevada-Las Vegas | -2.0 | 144.5 |
| Furman | Virginia Military Institute | 15.4 | 156.5 |
| Georgia Tech | Notre Dame | -8.6 | 136.0 |
| Green Bay | Northern Kentucky | 7.6 | 141.2 |
| High Point | South Carolina Upstate | 13.9 | 152.2 |
| Iowa | Maryland | -4.2 | 149.8 |
| Jacksonville | Kennesaw State | 0.9 | 154.9 |
| Lafayette | Loyola (MD) | 8.3 | 132.7 |
| Loyola (IL) | Saint Joseph’s | 8.5 | 150.5 |
| Massachusetts | Richmond | -6.0 | 149.0 |
| Mercer | Wofford | -1.2 | 142.7 |
| Michigan State | Penn State | 1.1 | 146.4 |
| Missouri State | Murray State | -3.5 | 140.9 |
| North Florida | Queens (NC) | -5.6 | 158.9 |
| Northern Iowa | Valparaiso | 1.7 | 140.1 |
| Presbyterian | UNC Asheville | -9.6 | 149.6 |
| Purdue Fort Wayne | Oakland | 3.6 | 152.9 |
| Robert Morris | Youngstown State | -14.3 | 151.9 |
| Samford | Western Carolina | 8.4 | 156.6 |
| Seton Hall | Xavier | 1.0 | 144.3 |
| South Florida | Tulsa | 11.9 | 146.4 |
| The Citadel | UNC Greensboro | -2.9 | 142.0 |
| Utah State | Wyoming | 8.8 | 151.0 |
Bets:
VMI +23
Chicago St +11.5
Fresno St/UNLV Over 137.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | Fresno State | 5.4 | 130.8 |
| American | Navy | 4.7 | 132.1 |
| Army | Boston University | -5.3 | 127.5 |
| Baylor | Oklahoma | -0.7 | 143.0 |
| Boise State | Utah State | 14.2 | 125.7 |
| Bucknell | Lehigh | -9.1 | 132.6 |
| Butler | Providence | -3.2 | 118.9 |
| Charleston Southern | Gardner-Webb | 2.1 | 139.5 |
| Charlotte | Memphis | 1.9 | 135.1 |
| Cincinnati | Kansas | -10.3 | 124.4 |
| Coastal Carolina | Old Dominion | -11.5 | 129.0 |
| Colgate | Holy Cross | -10.5 | 117.8 |
| Colorado State | Nevada-Las Vegas | -17.5 | 139.4 |
| Connecticut | Xavier | 39.8 | 134.4 |
| Davidson | George Mason | -3.3 | 124.2 |
| Dayton | Saint Joseph’s | -29.7 | 127.4 |
| Duquesne | St. Bonaventure | 10.4 | 133.8 |
| East Carolina | Rice | -0.2 | 126.5 |
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | -7.2 | 132.2 |
| George Washington | La Salle | 13.8 | 123.5 |
| High Point | South Carolina Upstate | -2.3 | 128.6 |
| Houston | Texas | -22.9 | 141.5 |
| Indiana | Wisconsin | 20.6 | 132.6 |
| Iowa State | Kansas State | -3.3 | 132.0 |
| IUPUI | Northern Kentucky | -10.7 | 142.4 |
| Lafayette | Loyola (MD) | -7.0 | 119.7 |
| Loyola (IL) | Saint Louis | -5.2 | 137.8 |
| Massachusetts | Rhode Island | -10.8 | 126.5 |
| Nebraska | Ohio State | -15.5 | 138.5 |
| Nevada | San Diego State | -1.8 | 130.7 |
| New Mexico | San Jose State | 19.5 | 123.3 |
| Northern Illinois | Western Michigan | 2.4 | 127.9 |
| Northwestern | Purdue | -7.6 | 140.3 |
| Oklahoma State | Texas Tech | -0.6 | 132.6 |
| Presbyterian | UNC Asheville | -2.7 | 117.6 |
| Radford | Winthrop | 4.4 | 114.3 |
| Richmond | Virginia Commonwealth | 2.1 | 125.3 |
| Southern Methodist | Tulane | 2.4 | 138.1 |
| Temple | UAB | -1.1 | 140.2 |
| Tulsa | UTSA | 6.6 | 132.0 |
| Wright State | Youngstown State | 7.1 | 131.0 |
