College basketball best bets and projections
There’s no way around it, Sunday was an absolute bloodbath for me. Shockingly, most of the violence occurred on the women’s side, as I went just 1-6 for my worst day of the season. Men’s bets split, 1-1, after a solid 4-2 Saturday. Pretty small slates on both men’s and women’s hoops today, so volume will be low as I lick my wounds from yesterday, but be sure to follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s bets as I make them.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, February 19th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Alabama A&M | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 2.7 | 157.1 |
| Alabama State | Mississippi Valley State | 20.2 | 128.7 |
| Alcorn State | Florida A&M | 7.3 | 146.6 |
| Bethune-Cookman | Jackson State | -4.0 | 147.0 |
| Colgate | Lafayette | 6.8 | 134.7 |
| College of Charleston | William & Mary | 17.1 | 152.2 |
| Coppin State | Maryland-Eastern Shore | -7.6 | 128.3 |
| Delaware State | Morgan State | 6.3 | 146.9 |
| Grambling | Prairie View | -1.3 | 135.8 |
| Houston | Iowa State | 6.0 | 136.1 |
| Howard | South Carolina State | 7.8 | 153.2 |
| Incarnate Word | Texas A&M-Commerce | 3.5 | 144.1 |
| Kansas State | Texas | -7.9 | 144.6 |
| Lamar | Southeastern Louisiana | 0.4 | 147.5 |
| New Orleans | Nicholls State | -4.7 | 151.0 |
| Norfolk State | North Carolina Central | 9.9 | 137.9 |
| Northwestern State | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | -12.6 | 140.0 |
| Southern | Texas Southern | 0.8 | 138.2 |
| Virginia | Virginia Tech | -1.3 | 133.4 |
Bet:
Houston/Iowa State Over 127.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Alabama A&M | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -7.1 | 136.1 |
| Alabama State | Mississippi Valley State | 1.8 | 125.9 |
| Alcorn State | Florida A&M | 1.6 | 120.6 |
| Bethune-Cookman | Jackson State | -18.9 | 127.3 |
| Connecticut | Creighton | 16.3 | 144.0 |
| Coppin State | Maryland-Eastern Shore | -5.8 | 115.3 |
| Delaware State | Morgan State | -4.1 | 126.6 |
| Duke | Notre Dame | 1.2 | 135.0 |
| Grambling | Prairie View | 9.7 | 135.8 |
| Howard | South Carolina State | 20.2 | 115.1 |
| Illinois | Indiana | -8.3 | 141.1 |
| Louisiana State | Texas A&M | 13.0 | 141.4 |
| Norfolk State | North Carolina Central | 22.7 | 134.3 |
| Southern | Texas Southern | 12.7 | 122.0 |
| Temple | Tulane | 8.5 | 134.3 |
