College basketball best bets and projections
A big swing and a miss from me yesterday, as I went 0-2 on best bets. It happens, but it’s still frustrating when it does. All we can do is hop back in the saddle and try to start another positive run as February winds down and we head into the most fun time of year for college basketball. I’ve had no women’s bets this week, as the Sunday-Tuesday slates are never very appealing with merely a handful of games each day, but I’d expect some Wednesday action so stay tuned for that. There’s a decent 30+ game men’s slate today, but despite the number of games, I found just one play that really met my bet criteria.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s best bets as I make them.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, February 27th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | Boise State | -11.2 | 138.6 |
| Akron | Ohio | -2.0 | 143.7 |
| Arkansas | Vanderbilt | 8.1 | 145.6 |
| Ball State | Central Michigan | -4.0 | 135.7 |
| Bowling Green State | Miami (OH) | 5.3 | 142.4 |
| Brigham Young | Kansas | 1.5 | 151.2 |
| Buffalo | Kent State | -18.3 | 148.4 |
| Cincinnati | Houston | -13.6 | 136.8 |
| Clemson | Pittsburgh | 4.1 | 146.7 |
| Colorado State | Nevada | 5.4 | 143.5 |
| Davidson | Dayton | -8.4 | 138.0 |
| Eastern Illinois | Southern Illinois-Edwardsville | -0.2 | 136.5 |
| Eastern Michigan | Western Michigan | -2.6 | 140.8 |
| Florida State | NC State | 2.4 | 152.7 |
| Fordham | George Mason | -5.3 | 144.7 |
| Fresno State | Utah State | -10.9 | 145.7 |
| George Washington | Massachusetts | -6.2 | 159.6 |
| Georgetown | Villanova | -15.4 | 143.6 |
| Georgia | Louisiana State | -3.3 | 151.4 |
| Indiana | Wisconsin | -4.3 | 144.9 |
| Iowa | Penn State | 7.9 | 161.7 |
| Kentucky | Mississippi State | 0.2 | 157.3 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Texas State | -4.3 | 134.7 |
| Loyola (IL) | St. Bonaventure | -2.5 | 142.4 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | Wyoming | 6.1 | 146.2 |
| Northern Illinois | Toledo | -15.2 | 158.0 |
| Northern Iowa | Valparaiso | 12.0 | 142.9 |
| Notre Dame | Wake Forest | -8.9 | 137.7 |
| San Diego State | San Jose State | 19.2 | 142.4 |
| Syracuse | Virginia Tech | 0.0 | 152.1 |
| Texas | Texas Tech | -3.2 | 148.6 |
Bet:
Fordham/George Mason Over 137.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| American | Army | 2.6 | 127.5 |
| Arkansas State | Louisiana-Monroe | 2.5 | 135.9 |
| Baylor | Cincinnati | 12.4 | 129.2 |
| Cleveland State | Youngstown State | 11.9 | 126.6 |
| Creighton | Xavier | 40.4 | 128.8 |
| East Carolina | North Texas | -4.5 | 132.2 |
| Eastern Illinois | Southern Illinois-Edwardsville | 11.4 | 144.8 |
| Georgia Southern | Old Dominion | -10.8 | 131.6 |
| Georgia State | Marshall | -17.1 | 154.9 |
| Indiana | Northwestern | 24.4 | 146.2 |
| Louisiana | South Alabama | 14.6 | 116.8 |
| Marquette | St. John’s (NY) | 9.7 | 125.5 |
| Northern Kentucky | Robert Morris | 6.1 | 130.8 |
| Oklahoma State | West Virginia | -8.3 | 134.6 |
