College basketball best bets and projections
Another one bit the dust yesterday, as Fordham and George Mason forgot how to put the ball in the basket in the first half, leading to just 37 points in the first 20 minutes. Ugly. The Wednesday slate is pretty fruitful, so let’s hope to get back to our winning ways today for both men’s and women’s hoops. Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s basketball bets as soon as I make them. I hope today is a handful-of-bets type of day on the women’s side, but we’ll see what these lines look like as they drop throughout the day.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, February 28th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Alabama | Mississippi | 9.2 | 160.9 |
| American | Army | 1.2 | 130.6 |
| Appalachian State | Old Dominion | 15.8 | 143.8 |
| Arizona | Arizona State | 15.9 | 155.7 |
| Arkansas State | Coastal Carolina | 4.8 | 155.4 |
| Auburn | Tennessee | -2.0 | 149.8 |
| Austin Peay | Eastern Kentucky | 4.7 | 148.3 |
| Bellarmine | Lipscomb | -13.4 | 147.7 |
| Belmont | Murray State | -3.7 | 150.5 |
| Boston College | Virginia | 0.9 | 135.3 |
| Boston University | Lehigh | -4.9 | 145.7 |
| Bradley | Southern Illinois | 7.0 | 140.5 |
| Bucknell | Loyola (MD) | 2.4 | 138.1 |
| Butler | St. John’s (NY) | 1.2 | 150.0 |
| California | Colorado | -11.8 | 152.0 |
| Central Florida | Oklahoma State | 2.1 | 143.2 |
| Charleston Southern | Radford | -4.8 | 141.3 |
| Chattanooga | Mercer | 7.8 | 144.4 |
| Cleveland State | Green Bay | 5.1 | 141.0 |
| Colgate | Holy Cross | 13.1 | 140.4 |
| Creighton | Seton Hall | 9.9 | 147.7 |
| DePaul | Xavier | -20.5 | 146.3 |
| Detroit Mercy | Youngstown State | -23.5 | 147.7 |
| Drake | Illinois-Chicago | 8.2 | 147.1 |
| Duke | Louisville | 21.9 | 151.2 |
| Duquesne | La Salle | 6.5 | 144.6 |
| East Tennessee State | The Citadel | -3.1 | 138.6 |
| Evansville | Indiana State | -11.7 | 152.9 |
| Florida | Missouri | 13.8 | 153.9 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | North Florida | -1.3 | 143.4 |
| Furman | Western Carolina | -2.4 | 147.5 |
| Georgia Southern | Marshall | -2.6 | 149.4 |
| Georgia State | James Madison | -11.4 | 149.5 |
| High Point | Winthrop | 9.3 | 153.8 |
| Illinois | Minnesota | 10.7 | 154.6 |
| Illinois State | Missouri State | 1.3 | 140.4 |
| Iowa State | Oklahoma | 9.5 | 144.3 |
| IUPUI | Milwaukee | -12.6 | 148.5 |
| Jacksonville | Stetson | -7.7 | 140.1 |
| Lafayette | Navy | -2.5 | 135.9 |
| Louisiana | Troy | 3.9 | 146.3 |
| Louisiana Tech | Western Kentucky | 1.9 | 146.3 |
| Marquette | Providence | 7.9 | 148.2 |
| Maryland | Northwestern | 4.1 | 139.3 |
| North Texas | Tulane | 1.1 | 146.9 |
| Northern Kentucky | Robert Morris | 1.9 | 144.1 |
| Oregon | Oregon State | 11.4 | 141.9 |
| Presbyterian | South Carolina Upstate | -1.3 | 143.8 |
| Purdue Fort Wayne | Wright State | -2.3 | 161.7 |
| Rhode Island | Virginia Commonwealth | -10.0 | 145.5 |
| Rice | Temple | 2.0 | 146.9 |
| Richmond | Saint Louis | 7.7 | 150.1 |
| Samford | Wofford | 9.0 | 155.1 |
| South Alabama | Southern Mississippi | 1.4 | 145.5 |
| South Carolina | Texas A&M | -1.1 | 138.1 |
| Tulsa | UTSA | 1.8 | 154.0 |
| UAB | Wichita State | 6.6 | 146.5 |
| UNC Greensboro | Virginia Military Institute | 20.4 | 146.3 |
Bets:
Stetson PK
Austin Peay +1.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | Utah State | 14.4 | 132.9 |
| Akron | Ball State | -14.9 | 130.1 |
| Appalachian State | Troy | -4.2 | 153.3 |
| Boise State | Nevada-Las Vegas | -18.6 | 133.5 |
| Boston University | Lehigh | 3.8 | 138.2 |
| Bowling Green State | Buffalo | 6.3 | 134.2 |
| Brigham Young | Houston | 2.5 | 134.4 |
| Bucknell | Loyola (MD) | -1.7 | 120.3 |
| Butler | DePaul | -0.1 | 135.6 |
| Central Florida | Kansas | -5.1 | 127.4 |
| Central Michigan | Miami (OH) | -2.9 | 120.3 |
| Charleston Southern | Radford | 0.4 | 123.6 |
| Coastal Carolina | James Madison | -3.0 | 136.9 |
| Colgate | Holy Cross | 6.6 | 119.4 |
| Colorado State | Nevada | 13.0 | 131.3 |
| Connecticut | Villanova | 23.3 | 135.4 |
| Davidson | George Washington | 12.4 | 119.3 |
| Dayton | George Mason | -15.1 | 132.9 |
| Duquesne | Richmond | -12.2 | 138.6 |
| Eastern Michigan | Kent State | -16.1 | 127.4 |
| Florida Atlantic | Tulane | 2.9 | 126.8 |
| Fordham | Saint Joseph’s | -14.4 | 123.3 |
| Gardner-Webb | Longwood | -7.0 | 140.4 |
| Gonzaga | Portland | 22.4 | 137.5 |
| Green Bay | Purdue Fort Wayne | 7.0 | 128.2 |
| High Point | Winthrop | 6.9 | 122.1 |
| Iowa | Minnesota | 14.7 | 147.1 |
| Iowa State | Kansas State | -6.1 | 132.6 |
| La Salle | Saint Louis | -9.8 | 139.9 |
| Lafayette | Navy | 2.0 | 127.6 |
| Louisiana Tech | Western Kentucky | 2.0 | 126.2 |
| Massachusetts | St. Bonaventure | 2.5 | 129.5 |
| Memphis | UTSA | 1.6 | 131.4 |
| Michigan | Ohio State | -16.9 | 131.7 |
| New Mexico | San Diego State | 4.2 | 128.4 |
| Northern Illinois | Toledo | -14.7 | 128.1 |
| Ohio | Western Michigan | -1.9 | 129.8 |
| Oklahoma | Texas | -6.9 | 144.7 |
| Penn State | Purdue | 1.3 | 144.4 |
| Presbyterian | South Carolina Upstate | 5.3 | 120.9 |
| Providence | Seton Hall | -4.6 | 120.7 |
| Rhode Island | Virginia Commonwealth | 0.4 | 117.5 |
| San Jose State | Wyoming | -11.6 | 121.5 |
| Southern Methodist | Wichita State | 8.4 | 134.1 |
| Southern Mississippi | Texas State | 4.6 | 122.8 |
| TCU | Texas Tech | 9.3 | 126.3 |
| Temple | Tulsa | 7.9 | 134.5 |
