College basketball best bets and projections
The only question I have after yesterday’s 1-2 betting day is this: what in the world happened to BYU? As 1.5-point road underdogs, the team I had favored to win got blown out. Maybe a misread by the model? A fluky performance on the road against a Big 12 team? Who knows, but I couldn’t believe the result when I woke up this morning – as I am 1. Old and in bed by 9:30 and 2. On East Coast time, so I definitely can’t stay up to watch games taking place in other time zones. Nonetheless, we’ll shake it off and move on to today’s slate, which will hopefully (and should likely) include some women’s best bets, which is where our bread has been buttered this year, undoubtedly.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, for women’s best bets.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, February 7th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Alabama | Auburn | -2.4 | 163.3 |
| American | Loyola (MD) | 15.2 | 139.6 |
| Appalachian State | Texas State | 10.2 | 137.6 |
| Arkansas State | James Madison | -8.7 | 159.0 |
| Army | Lehigh | -9.0 | 136.5 |
| Bellarmine | Stetson | -6.1 | 141.1 |
| Belmont | Murray State | -3.6 | 146.9 |
| Boston University | Colgate | -11.4 | 135.7 |
| Bradley | Evansville | 14.0 | 145.7 |
| Bucknell | Navy | 3.0 | 136.7 |
| California | Southern California | 6.3 | 150.3 |
| Charleston Southern | Winthrop | -9.2 | 145.6 |
| Cleveland State | Purdue Fort Wayne | -5.6 | 151.3 |
| Coastal Carolina | Louisiana-Monroe | -12.2 | 147.2 |
| Creighton | Providence | -2.8 | 148.4 |
| Davidson | Duquesne | -4.6 | 140.3 |
| Drake | Southern Illinois | 12.5 | 145.4 |
| Duke | Notre Dame | 15.7 | 139.4 |
| East Tennessee State | Wofford | 2.1 | 145.0 |
| Eastern Kentucky | Florida Gulf Coast | 3.5 | 146.0 |
| Furman | Mercer | -0.6 | 146.4 |
| Gardner-Webb | Presbyterian | 4.9 | 147.2 |
| George Mason | Loyola (IL) | 2.3 | 142.5 |
| Georgetown | Seton Hall | -14.6 | 147.3 |
| Georgia | Mississippi State | -6.0 | 146.8 |
| Georgia Southern | South Alabama | 0.4 | 149.9 |
| Georgia State | Louisiana | -15.2 | 149.5 |
| Gonzaga | Portland | 26.7 | 155.0 |
| High Point | UNC Asheville | 3.3 | 158.3 |
| Holy Cross | Lafayette | -10.1 | 136.7 |
| Illinois State | Illinois-Chicago | 8.5 | 136.2 |
| Indiana State | Valparaiso | 19.1 | 153.0 |
| La Salle | Saint Louis | 9.1 | 146.6 |
| Longwood | South Carolina Upstate | 4.3 | 141.3 |
| Louisiana State | Tennessee | -10.0 | 153.1 |
| Louisiana Tech | Western Kentucky | 14.6 | 151.7 |
| Louisville | Syracuse | -7.7 | 150.2 |
| Loyola Marymount | San Diego | -0.3 | 147.4 |
| Marshall | Troy | -4.5 | 149.5 |
| Massachusetts | St. Bonaventure | -2.9 | 149.2 |
| Michigan | Wisconsin | -12.3 | 150.2 |
| Missouri | Texas A&M | -6.3 | 142.1 |
| Missouri State | Northern Iowa | 2.7 | 144.0 |
| NC State | Pittsburgh | -1.7 | 146.0 |
| Nebraska | Northwestern | -2.1 | 152.1 |
| North Texas | Tulsa | 3.8 | 139.3 |
| Old Dominion | Southern Mississippi | -3.7 | 141.9 |
| Rice | Southern Methodist | -7.9 | 144.7 |
| Stanford | UCLA | 1.9 | 142.0 |
| The Citadel | Western Carolina | -9.8 | 144.1 |
| UTSA | Wichita State | -11.2 | 155.2 |
| Villanova | Xavier | -3.6 | 148.4 |
Bets:
Wisconsin -5.5
Missouri St +5
Louisiana -8.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | Nevada | 7.0 | 128.1 |
| Akron | Eastern Michigan | 2.3 | 123.4 |
| Appalachian State | Louisiana-Monroe | 4.6 | 142.1 |
| Arkansas State | Georgia State | -8.1 | 139.0 |
| Austin Peay | North Florida | 7.1 | 120.5 |
| Ball State | Northern Illinois | 19.1 | 130.4 |
| Baylor | Brigham Young | 11.0 | 136.4 |
| Boise State | San Jose State | 13.8 | 122.1 |
| Bowling Green State | Ohio | 9.6 | 136.4 |
| Buffalo | Miami (OH) | 8.4 | 124.7 |
| Central Florida | Cincinnati | 4.1 | 122.3 |
| Central Michigan | Toledo | -17.7 | 128.2 |
| Charleston Southern | Winthrop | 3.1 | 120.7 |
| Charlotte | Florida Atlantic | 11.5 | 127.5 |
| Cleveland State | Wright State | 14.9 | 142.8 |
| Coastal Carolina | Texas State | 1.9 | 133.1 |
| Colorado State | Fresno State | 12.0 | 134.0 |
| Connecticut | Seton Hall | 24.8 | 135.6 |
| Dayton | Fordham | -10.2 | 131.1 |
| DePaul | Providence | -2.7 | 133.7 |
| Duquesne | Massachusetts | 12.5 | 139.1 |
| Gardner-Webb | Presbyterian | -0.5 | 132.9 |
| George Washington | St. Bonaventure | 8.7 | 119.6 |
| Georgetown | Marquette | -8.5 | 125.3 |
| Georgia Southern | Southern Mississippi | -6.8 | 138.0 |
| High Point | UNC Asheville | 8.9 | 124.8 |
| Jacksonville | Lipscomb | -2.9 | 134.9 |
| James Madison | South Alabama | 23.0 | 130.8 |
| Kent State | Western Michigan | 7.8 | 130.6 |
| Longwood | South Carolina Upstate | -3.0 | 131.7 |
| Louisiana | Marshall | -11.3 | 138.3 |
| Louisiana Tech | Western Kentucky | -0.3 | 126.4 |
| New Mexico | San Diego State | 0.8 | 129.6 |
| Oklahoma | TCU | 10.0 | 140.7 |
| Old Dominion | Troy | 2.5 | 141.4 |
| Rhode Island | Richmond | -0.7 | 127.1 |
| Rice | South Florida | -5.9 | 123.5 |
| Saint Louis | Virginia Commonwealth | -4.0 | 130.8 |
| Tulane | UAB | 2.2 | 138.5 |
| Utah State | Wyoming | -29.8 | 124.9 |
