College basketball best bets and projections
As conference tournaments wind down and we hit the final stretch of the college basketball season before the NCAA Tournament begins, I want to be even more selective with my bets. Teams playing several games in a short period of time due to the structure of conference tournaments can make handicapping even more tricky. While I obviously believe in my projections, it’s impossible to quantify the wear and tear on teams as they slog their way through conference tournaments, not to mention the motivation of teams who are only getting in the NCAA tournament by winning their conference tournament. All that said, let’s be especially disciplined this week as we prepare for March Madness.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, March 11th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| College of Charleston | Towson | 3.5 | 140.6 |
| Gonzaga | San Francisco | 5.8 | 151.1 |
| Hofstra | Stony Brook | 5.6 | 145.0 |
| James Madison | Arkansas State | 11.9 | 158.1 |
| Lamar | New Orleans | 13.7 | 154.3 |
| Montana | Portland State | 5.8 | 145.1 |
| Nicholls State | Texas A&M-Commerce | 5.6 | 144.8 |
| Northern Kentucky | Milwaukee | 1.9 | 152.3 |
| Oakland | Cleveland State | 4.4 | 148.1 |
| Omaha | Denver | 0.3 | 161.0 |
| Saint Mary’s (CA) | Santa Clara | 10.0 | 138.7 |
| Samford | East Tennessee State | 10.4 | 151.3 |
| South Dakota State | St. Thomas | -0.5 | 142.8 |
| Weber State | Montana State | 5.7 | 143.6 |
Lean: James Madison -5.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Albany (NY) | Vermont | -3.6 | 113.6 |
| Boston University | Army | 3.7 | 127.6 |
| Cleveland State | Wright State | 13.5 | 139.5 |
| Colgate | Navy | 8.5 | 125.1 |
| Connecticut | Georgetown | 26.8 | 126.8 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | Long Island University | 9.4 | 126.2 |
| Gonzaga | Pacific | 25.2 | 148.1 |
| Green Bay | Purdue Fort Wayne | 11.1 | 128.6 |
| Holy Cross | Bucknell | 6.9 | 117.6 |
| Le Moyne | Stonehill | 15.1 | 120.3 |
| Loyola (MD) | Lehigh | -1.9 | 135.0 |
| Maine | Binghamton | 9.3 | 126.3 |
| Marshall | James Madison | 8.6 | 150.8 |
| Merrimack | Central Connecticut State | 5.4 | 127.5 |
| Montana | Idaho | 9.8 | 125.6 |
| Montana State | Northern Colorado | 1.0 | 120.6 |
| Nevada | Colorado State | -9.4 | 129.8 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | Fresno State | 21.8 | 137.9 |
| New Mexico | San Diego State | 1.1 | 128.1 |
| New Orleans | Nicholls State | -3.8 | 129.3 |
| North Dakota State | Oral Roberts | 3.1 | 153.8 |
| North Texas | Rice | 3.8 | 136.7 |
| Oklahoma | Iowa State | 2.6 | 148.8 |
| Sacred Heart | Saint Francis (PA) | 25.3 | 126.9 |
| Santa Clara | Portland | 3.3 | 128.4 |
| South Dakota State | South Dakota | 9.3 | 129.8 |
| Temple | Tulane | 7.8 | 131.1 |
| Texas | Kansas State | 10.0 | 132.8 |
| Texas A&M-Commerce | Northwestern State | -3.5 | 135.5 |
| Tulsa | East Carolina | -0.8 | 133.6 |
| UTSA | South Florida | -3.3 | 121.8 |
| Wyoming | Boise State | 1.2 | 119.3 |
