College basketball best bets and projections
Major conference tournaments are in full swing now, which means there’s a healthy slate of games for us to try to find some winners today. We had another 1-1 split on Tuesday, bringing the season total to 96-90-1, which isn’t quite where we want to be, but we’re still alive and hopefully gearing up for a huge conference championship weekend and into the NCAA Tournament. We did not have any women’s action yesterday, but hopefully we can get back in the saddle there today as well, since we’re 154-112 on that side of things this season.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response.
Speaking of the conference tournaments, we’re previewing them all, so check out our 2024 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, March 14th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Akron | Miami (OH) | 8.3 | 132.8 |
| Arizona | Southern California | 16.7 | 154.8 |
| Baylor | Cincinnati | 4.0 | 145.8 |
| Boise State | New Mexico | -0.4 | 150.1 |
| Central Michigan | Bowling Green State | -2.1 | 135.0 |
| Colorado | Utah | 1.9 | 149.6 |
| Connecticut | Xavier | 12.8 | 144.3 |
| Creighton | Providence | 7.7 | 143.1 |
| Dayton | Duquesne | 5.7 | 132.2 |
| Duke | NC State | 10.3 | 145.4 |
| East Carolina | Tulsa | -0.1 | 138.3 |
| Florida | Georgia | 6.6 | 154.0 |
| Hawaii | Cal State Northridge | 4.8 | 142.3 |
| Houston | TCU | 9.9 | 137.8 |
| Howard | Morgan State | 6.9 | 152.3 |
| Indiana | Penn State | -1.1 | 146.6 |
| Iowa | Ohio State | 1.4 | 152.4 |
| Iowa State | Kansas State | 11.5 | 135.6 |
| Liberty | UTEP | 6.1 | 132.9 |
| Long Beach State | UC Riverside | 2.6 | 146.8 |
| Louisiana State | Mississippi State | -4.9 | 140.9 |
| Loyola (IL) | St. Bonaventure | 0.7 | 137.4 |
| Marist | Niagara | 0.8 | 133.0 |
| Marquette | Villanova | 3.7 | 138.8 |
| Massachusetts | Virginia Commonwealth | 0.5 | 140.6 |
| Memphis | Wichita State | 6.5 | 147.4 |
| Michigan State | Minnesota | 5.5 | 135.8 |
| Nevada | Colorado State | -0.7 | 138.6 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | San Diego State | -4.3 | 136.3 |
| North Carolina | Florida State | 11.0 | 150.4 |
| North Texas | Tulane | 5.0 | 143.4 |
| Ohio | Western Michigan | 9.4 | 144.7 |
| Oregon | UCLA | 3.0 | 132.3 |
| Pittsburgh | Wake Forest | -1.0 | 142.2 |
| Richmond | Saint Joseph’s | 2.1 | 140.6 |
| Rider | Saint Peter’s | -1.9 | 132.6 |
| Seattle | California Baptist | 4.4 | 130.9 |
| Seton Hall | St. John’s (NY) | -3.0 | 140.4 |
| South Carolina | Arkansas | 6.6 | 139.4 |
| South Carolina State | Delaware State | -1.0 | 139.0 |
| Southern | Bethune-Cookman | 2.6 | 137.1 |
| Southern Methodist | Temple | 10.4 | 139.2 |
| Texas A&M | Mississippi | 1.4 | 139.5 |
| Texas Southern | Jackson State | 2.0 | 139.2 |
| Texas Tech | Brigham Young | -5.6 | 147.3 |
| Toledo | Kent State | 0.9 | 151.2 |
| UT Arlington | Stephen F. Austin | 0.7 | 144.4 |
| Utah State | Fresno State | 14.5 | 141.4 |
| Virginia | Boston College | 2.3 | 127.6 |
| Washington State | Stanford | 8.1 | 142.2 |
| Western Kentucky | New Mexico State | 8.7 | 145.6 |
| Wisconsin | Maryland | 1.8 | 132.8 |
Bets:
Kent State +6 (11am Eastern tip)
Ole Miss +5.5
Wake Forest/Pitt Under 145.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff | Alabama A&M | 6.9 | 129.6 |
| Cal Poly | UC Davis | 1.8 | 121.2 |
| Campbell | Elon | 8.5 | 107.6 |
| Colgate | Boston University | 4.3 | 122.7 |
| Coppin State | Maryland-Eastern Shore | -2.5 | 114.7 |
| Drexel | Delaware | 1.5 | 119.4 |
| Florida International | New Mexico State | 4.5 | 122.4 |
| Holy Cross | Loyola (MD) | 5.6 | 119.3 |
| Illinois State | Evansville | 21.4 | 136.3 |
| Illinois-Chicago | Valparaiso | 11.5 | 124.4 |
| Lamar | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 2.4 | 120.3 |
| Le Moyne | Fairleigh Dickinson | 3.5 | 117.7 |
| Louisiana Tech | Jacksonville State | 6.1 | 115.9 |
| Manhattan | Canisius | 0.9 | 116.8 |
| Murray State | Bradley | 21.1 | 147.9 |
| North Carolina Central | Delaware State | 7.3 | 134.1 |
| Sacred Heart | Merrimack | 11.1 | 125.7 |
| Siena | Mount St. Mary’s | 7.6 | 123.2 |
| Southern | Alcorn State | 9.9 | 113.1 |
| Southern Illinois | Indiana State | 4.1 | 126.5 |
| Stephen F. Austin | Tarleton State | 11.3 | 130.4 |
| Towson | Northeastern | 12.5 | 125.2 |
| UC Riverside | Long Beach State | 1.5 | 125.6 |
| Utah Tech | UT Arlington | 0.4 | 138.8 |
| William & Mary | Hofstra | 9.7 | 119.8 |
