College basketball best bets and projections
Editor note: Tyler Shoemaker originally filed this on Saturday, but it included projections for Sunday‘s men’s and women’s NCAA Tournament action. The tables have been updated accordingly.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, March 24th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s Sunday
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Alabama | Grand Canyon | 12.3 | 163.7 |
| Baylor | Clemson | 5.3 | 150.9 |
| Connecticut | Northwestern | 9.9 | 142.2 |
| Duke | James Madison | 8.1 | 148.7 |
| Houston | Texas A&M | 17.4 | 132.8 |
| Indiana State | Minnesota | 5.6 | 152.9 |
| Marquette | Colorado | 3.9 | 152.0 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | Boston College | 8.9 | 143.8 |
| Purdue | Utah State | 8.9 | 153.1 |
| San Diego State | Yale | 10.4 | 138.7 |
| South Florida | Virginia Commonwealth | -3.8 | 136.8 |
| Utah | Iowa | -0.7 | 159.0 |
| Wake Forest | Georgia | 6.7 | 147.5 |
Women’s Sunday
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| California | Saint Joseph’s | -9.2 | 124.8 |
| Cincinnati | Purdue Fort Wayne | -3.1 | 126.9 |
| Illinois | Stony Brook | -6.9 | 139.3 |
| Illinois State | College of Charleston | -3.5 | 142.5 |
| Kansas State | Colorado | 0.6 | 131.5 |
| Louisiana State | Middle Tennessee | 8.5 | 139.9 |
| Mississippi State | TCU | 4.0 | 135.5 |
| North Carolina A&T | Old Dominion | 0.9 | 119.5 |
| Ohio State | Duke | 3.2 | 128.6 |
| Oregon State | Nebraska | 5.7 | 128.4 |
| Saint Louis | Northern Iowa | -9.6 | 145.9 |
| South Carolina | North Carolina | 23.7 | 136.0 |
| Stanford | Iowa State | 11.3 | 141.8 |
| Texas | Alabama | 12.4 | 136.7 |
| Toledo | St. John’s (NY) | 9.7 | 124.5 |
| Tulsa | Georgetown | 2.2 | 123.3 |
| Villanova | Virginia | 1.7 | 135.9 |
| Virginia Tech | Baylor | -0.4 | 133.9 |
| Washington State | Santa Clara | 5.7 | 129.9 |
| Wyoming | UTSA | 2.1 | 121.4 |
