College basketball best bets and projections
We’ve finally made it to the weekend! Sweet 16 action is underway for men’s and women’s tournaments, and the T Shoe Index has you covered on projections for all of the games heading into Friday and Saturday night. Sunday’s games will be posted sometime Saturday afternoon, so follow me on X @TShoeIndex to see those, as well as any bets that I add to my card in the meantime. Here are the projections for Friday and Saturday tournament games.
We’ve cashed both women’s bets I’ve given out this week, so I’m definitely hoping to continue that momentum, as well as get involved on the men’s side as well.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for Friday, March 29th and Saturday, March 30th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Alabama | Clemson | 0.8 | 165.2 |
| Connecticut | Illinois | 9.7 | 154.9 |
| Houston | Duke | -0.2 | 137.3 |
| Marquette | NC State | 1.7 | 149.7 |
| Purdue | Gonzaga | 7.2 | 157.4 |
| Tennessee | Creighton | 0.3 | 148.6 |
Bets:
NC State +7
Duke +4
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Connecticut | Duke | 11.2 | 131.4 |
| Iowa | Colorado | 9.7 | 157.9 |
| Minnesota | North Dakota State | -2.9 | 135.1 |
| North Carolina A&T | Troy | -0.8 | 144.9 |
| Notre Dame | Oregon State | 3.7 | 134.5 |
| Purdue Fort Wayne | Saint Louis | 4.6 | 141.2 |
| South Carolina | Indiana | 16.2 | 141.4 |
| Southern California | Baylor | 0.5 | 135.1 |
| Stanford | NC State | 5.3 | 136.5 |
| Texas | Gonzaga | 0.8 | 142.9 |
| UCLA | Louisiana State | -5.5 | 146.6 |
| Vermont | Colgate | 6.8 | 117.7 |
| Wyoming | South Dakota | 2.4 | 125.0 |
Bets:
Gonzaga +5.5
Connecticut/Duke Over 126.5
Here’s how TSI has each remaining team power rated:
Men’s
| Team | Power |
| Connecticut | 27.7 |
| Purdue | 22.3 |
| Duke | 20.7 |
| Houston | 20.5 |
| Illinois | 18.0 |
| Tennessee | 16.6 |
| Creighton | 16.3 |
| Gonzaga | 15.1 |
| Alabama | 14.5 |
| Marquette | 12.8 |
| Clemson | 13.7 |
| NC State | 11.1 |
Women’s
| Team | Power |
| South Carolina | 34.8 |
| Connecticut | 29.5 |
| LSU | 26.8 |
| Texas | 26.1 |
| Iowa | 26 |
| Gonzaga | 25.3 |
| Stanford | 23 |
| UCLA | 21.3 |
| Notre Dame | 20.7 |
| Indiana | 18.6 |
| Duke | 18.2 |
| NC State | 17.6 |
| USC | 17.4 |
| Oregon State | 17 |
| Baylor | 16.8 |
| Colorado | 16.3 |
