College basketball best bets and projections
We were a late collapse by Western Michigan away from a 2-0 sweep in men’s basketball yesterday, as Coastal Carolina won outright as a small underdog to cash our other best bet, giving us a split on the night. We’re back today with a couple more bets on the men’s side and hopefully getting involved again on the women’s side but it’s been slim pickings on that front lately.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, March 6th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Arkansas | Louisiana State | 2.7 | 151.0 |
| Boston College | Miami (FL) | -3.2 | 150.0 |
| Brigham Young | Iowa State | -3.2 | 147.8 |
| Butler | Xavier | -1.3 | 150.6 |
| Central Connecticut State | Saint Francis (PA) | 11.8 | 140.2 |
| Central Florida | Houston | -8.5 | 138.0 |
| Charlotte | Rice | 8.8 | 139.0 |
| Connecticut | Marquette | 4.4 | 151.8 |
| Davidson | Loyola (IL) | 0.2 | 141.3 |
| East Carolina | Southern Methodist | -13.3 | 140.5 |
| Eastern Illinois | Southern Illinois-Edwardsville | 0.2 | 141.1 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | Le Moyne | -2.7 | 149.5 |
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | 1.3 | 143.3 |
| Fordham | Massachusetts | -12.8 | 148.0 |
| Fresno State | New Mexico | -16.5 | 149.4 |
| George Mason | Rhode Island | 5.8 | 146.6 |
| George Washington | St. Bonaventure | -7.7 | 151.4 |
| Houston Christian | Lamar | -19.4 | 152.2 |
| Incarnate Word | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | -17.6 | 146.1 |
| Indiana | Minnesota | -7.5 | 149.2 |
| Kentucky | Vanderbilt | 23.3 | 154.4 |
| Long Island University | Merrimack | -14.8 | 141.1 |
| McNeese State | New Orleans | 20.4 | 147.2 |
| Michigan State | Northwestern | 5.6 | 140.8 |
| Mississippi State | Texas A&M | 4.4 | 141.6 |
| Northwestern State | Texas A&M-Commerce | 0.2 | 142.8 |
| Radford | South Carolina Upstate | 3.0 | 143.3 |
| Richmond | Saint Joseph’s | 6.4 | 145.6 |
| Sacred Heart | Wagner | 8.5 | 138.7 |
| San Jose State | Utah State | -8.7 | 146.1 |
| Seton Hall | Villanova | -3.1 | 140.7 |
| South Carolina | Tennessee | -10.8 | 142.3 |
| Southern Indiana | Tennessee State | -4.7 | 143.2 |
| TCU | West Virginia | 5.8 | 150.8 |
Bets:
Mississippi State +2.5
Kentucky -17.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Akron | Ohio | 4.5 | 130.6 |
| American | Loyola (MD) | -8.8 | 126.9 |
| Appalachian State | Georgia State | 5.8 | 141.4 |
| Arizona | Washington | 4.0 | 127.1 |
| Arizona State | Utah | -21.2 | 136.6 |
| Arkansas State | Louisiana | -4.6 | 119.4 |
| Army | Lehigh | 1.0 | 137.0 |
| Ball State | Kent State | 0.6 | 133.3 |
| Boston University | Colgate | -5.6 | 127.4 |
| Bowling Green State | Western Michigan | 0.1 | 131.3 |
| Bucknell | Navy | 5.3 | 124.3 |
| Buffalo | Central Michigan | 17.1 | 130.8 |
| California | Washington State | -10.2 | 131.0 |
| Colorado | Oregon | 13.7 | 131.5 |
| Dayton | St. Bonaventure | 9.8 | 128.6 |
| Eastern Michigan | Toledo | -28.5 | 125.0 |
| Florida Atlantic | Temple | -12.1 | 128.3 |
| Gardner-Webb | UNC Asheville | -3.1 | 133.2 |
| Holy Cross | Lafayette | 13.3 | 120.6 |
| Houston Christian | Lamar | -27.9 | 118.7 |
| Incarnate Word | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | -8.1 | 122.2 |
| Liberty | Middle Tennessee | -10.8 | 126.9 |
| Louisiana Tech | Sam Houston | 8.8 | 130.4 |
| Louisiana-Monroe | Georgia Southern | 5.0 | 141.6 |
| McNeese State | New Orleans | -16.8 | 141.4 |
| Miami (OH) | Northern Illinois | -1.8 | 120.2 |
| Morehead State | Tennessee State | 3.7 | 130.8 |
| New Orleans | McNeese State | 16.8 | 141.4 |
| Northern Illinois | Miami (OH) | 1.8 | 120.2 |
| Northwestern State | Texas A&M-Commerce | 1.2 | 135.3 |
| Southern Mississippi | Coastal Carolina | 9.9 | 130.9 |
| Tennessee Tech | Western Illinois | -0.9 | 137.7 |
