College Basketball Odds: Value Bets and Futures for the NCAA Tournament

College basketball futures odds and bets

It’s almost time for March Madness, so before the tournament bracket unfolds I thought I’d take an opportunity to highlight some teams that my T Shoe Index has rated highly that the futures market might be undervaluing. Now, full transparency, I’m not a huge futures bettor because I think the prices are gouged by the sportsbooks because the majority of the market doesn’t understand true odds. That being said, that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities here and there to throw a few bucks down on some plus-money bets that make sense.

Keep a daily eye on the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

College Basketball Futures Bets to Consider

Arizona Wildcats (+1200)

DraftKings currently has Arizona with the fourth-best odds to win the national championship at +1200; however, TSI has the Wildcats as the No. 1 power-rated team and trending up over their last five games. The concern here would be the Arizona defense, which is rated just No. 103 in the country, but the offense is No. 2 nationally behind only Alabama. The reason I have faith in this team is that, over the last 10 years, the average national champion has had an offensive rating of just 80.8, while this version of Arizona boasts a 90.6 offensive rating (meaning they would be expected to score 90.6 points against the average CBB team). Considering I’ve got them with the 23rd-toughest schedule, I think they’re battle-tested and as impressive as anyone in the country. At 12/1, I think this is certainly worth considering adding to your futures portfolio. 

Houston Cougars (+900)

While this is certainly not a “longshot” bet, I wanted to give some perspective to the other side of the court since we discussed the dominance of Arizona’s offense. Houston currently boasts the No. 1 TSI defense nationally while playing against the 16th-ranked schedule. They currently sit at No. 2 in my power ratings, but have just the third-best odds to win the championship. The average defensive rating of the last 10 years is 61.9, and Houston currently possesses a suffocating 53.8 defensive rating. So, if you’re a “defense wins championships” kind of guy or girl, this team is for you and at 9/1 I think there are worse ways to spend a few dollars. 

TSI Top 40