Finding Advantages in Betting Late-Season Power 6 Games
I’ve always been a believer that the last 2-3 weeks before any league or level postseason are crucial. It is the point in the season in which teams hope to be playing their best as they get ready to make a playoff, or, in the case of college basketball Power 6 conferences, tournament run. The teams that typically perform best have had consistent coaching staffs that have prepared their teams strategically to be ready for this time of year. If this logic sounds familiar to you, I often write about a similar situation in the NFL, where the best teams tend to rise up in December.
I’ve also always believed that there is an enhanced home-court advantage at this time of year. That will also prove vital over the next two weeks as we wrap up league play in the Power 6 conferences. With so many regular season league titles still yet to be determined and the seeding for all the postseason tournaments not sorted out, there is a ton left to play for. And as usual, with so much on the line, the strategy for handicapping the games should change. It is often the case that oddsmakers will sway their lines slightly to reflect teams’ “must-win” mentality in key spots. Alternatively, they may shade teams playing out the string, already looking forward to the offseason.
The point spread is the great equalizer for bookmakers, and with so much known about each of the teams by now, those bettors looking to cash tickets in the final two weeks should be aware of some foundational trends and systems that have produced strong results in recent years. Part of that should include late-season performance, especially in cases where coaching situations have remained consistent for teams.
In this piece, I will be breaking down the results of the finals two weeks of the regular season for the power conferences, looking for spots in which we may be able to profit in 2024. As I indicated earlier, in most of the last five or six years I have published this analysis, the same names have arisen as the teams to back at this time of year. Teams like Virginia, Oregon, Kansas, UConn, etc. On the other side of the coin, programs like Georgetown, DePaul, Pittsburgh, Georgia, and even Alabama have continued to flounder in the late season.
Besides the top and bottom teams lists, which I am about to unveil, you’ll see that there are some very definitive angles for each Power 6 league that you’re going to be inclined to put to use over the next couple of weeks, primarily as they pertain to home court advantage, pace of play, and recent results between teams in a matchup.
For the record, the results shown cover games dating back to 2019, or the last five seasons. The time period of the final two weeks of this year’s regular season would include games between Monday, February 26th, and Sunday, March 10th, so readers will again have 14 full days to take advantage of the findings. You’ll see that I’ve also included a handy chart detailing the records for all the power conference teams in a variety of last two weeks’ scenarios at the conclusion of the piece.
Before going any further, however, you must consider that home-court advantage in the final two regular-season weeks has meant a great deal more than at any other point in the season. However, last year was the first time I have studied this data in the six years that home teams lost ATS, going 61-82 ATS. Even still, going back six seasons, home teams in the Power 6 conferences are 456-312 SU and 471-378 ATS for 55.5% in the final two weeks of the regular season. Nothing else considered, this is a nice profit-making strategy.
If you’re looking to up that ATS percentage a little more, consider the aspect of revenge. Power conference teams looking to avenge an earlier season loss and playing as home favorites of 6 points or more in the last two weeks of the regular season have gone 60-9 SU and 49-28 ATS (63.6%). It’s possible we could see this situation come up for the first time on Tuesday night when Iowa hosts Penn State.
Top Teams
Over the last five years, seven Power 6 conference teams have won 70% or more of their games in the final two weeks of the regular season. Only one has a losing ATS mark, and they have combined to go 86-46 against the spread (65.2%) as well. They are:
CONNECTICUT: 11-1 SU & 8-3 ATS
NORTH CAROLINA: 16-3 SU & 18-7 ATS
OREGON: 16-4 SU & 13-7 ATS
KANSAS: 14-5 SU & 7-11 ATS
CLEMSON: 14-6 SU & 12-8 ATS
GEORGIA TECH: 14-6 SU & 18-2 ATS
VIRGINIA 13-5 SU & 10-8 ATS
By no coincidence, five of these programs (UNC, GT excluded) have had the same coach for the duration of the study. In my opinion, this makes backing these teams late in the season a fundamentally sound strategy.
Note that Georgia Tech, with its elite late-season record, has a new head coach this season in Damon Stoudamire.
Also of interest is that no Big 10 or SEC schools met the qualifications this year.
There have been four different teams that have gone 70% or better ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years:
GEORGIA TECH: 14-6 SU & 18-2 ATS
CONNECTICUT: 11-1 SU & 8-3 ATS
TEXAS A&M: 10-8 SU & 12-5 ATS
OLE MISS: 7-13 SU but 14-6 ATS
It will be interesting to see how two of these teams, in particular, fare in 2024, as both Georgia Tech and Ole Miss have first-year coaches.
Bottom Teams
Seven Power 6 conference teams have won 30% or less of their games in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years, and their combined ATS record is an ugly 52-75 (38%). Those teams are:
PITTSBURGH: 4-13 SU & 6-11 ATS
IOWA STATE: 5-16 SU & 6-13 ATS
GEORGIA: 3-16 SU & 6-13 ATS
STANFORD: 5-12 SU & 9-8 ATS
MINNESOTA: 4-16 SU & 8-11 ATS
GEORGETOWN: 5-14 SU & 9-10 ATS
LOUISVILLE: 4-13 SU & 8-9 ATS
Interestingly here, for 2024, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, and Minnesota are enjoying fine seasons. Can they shake off past late-season struggles and finish strong?
There have been six teams that have gone 33% or worse ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years:
SYRACUSE: 7-14 SU & ATS
IOWA STATE: 5-16 SU & 6-13 ATS
MARQUETTE: 9-9 SU & 6-12 ATS
UTAH: 5-11 SU & 5-10 ATS
ALABAMA: 10-10 SU & 5-15 ATS
GEORGIA: 3-16 SU & 6-13 ATS
This is an eye-opening list in that every one of these teams is headed towards a postseason tournament of some sort and figures to be continuing the fight for better seeding in their remaining regular season games. Will things turn around for them in 2024? Recent history doesn’t suggest it. The four teams I pointed out in this section a year ago went 5-11 ATS the rest of the way, again proving that fading the worst late-season teams down the stretch is a fruitful strategy.
Best Home Teams
Six teams have gone 90% or better outright at home in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years and three teams have gone undefeated at home in that span. These teams have combined to go a remarkable 41-18 against the spread (69.5%) as hosts:
NORTH CAROLINA: 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS
KANSAS: 10-0 SU & 5-5 ATS
CONNECTICUT: 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS
MICHIGAN STATE: 12-0 SU & 10-2 ATS
OREGON: 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS
ARKANSAS: 10-1 SU & 6-5 ATS
If you’re plotting ahead, note that Michigan State has one home game left, 3/6 versus Northwestern, while UConn hosts its home finale on Sunday, 3/3, vs. Seton Hall. Oregon gets Oregon State (2/28) and Colorado (3/7) yet.
Worst Home Teams
Most of the teams on the “Bottom” list above have enjoyed little to no home-court advantage late in the season. Here are the six Power 6 conference teams that have won 33% or fewer of their home games outright in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years. Their combined ATS record is a miserable 24-34 (41.4%).
IOWA STATE: 3-7 SU & 2-7 ATS
GEORGETOWN: 3-7 SU but 6-4 ATS
MINNESOTA: 3-6 SU but 5-3 ATS
OREGON STATE: 3-8 SU & 5-6 ATS
FLORIDA: 2-7 SU & ATS
GEORGIA: 2-9 SU & 4-7 ATS
When you consider the 2024 prospects for the teams on the “worst home” list, there are some quality programs. Iowa State, Minnesota, Florida, & Georgia all need key wins down the stretch.
Best Road Teams
The ability to win on the road late in the season is typically a strong trait for the best teams across all sports. The same goes for college basketball. Here are the seven power conference teams to win at least 60% of their road games in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2019:
VIRGINIA: 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS
CONNECTICUT: 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS
KENTUCKY: 6-3 SU & ATS
WISCONSIN: 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS
NORTH CAROLINA: 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS
FLORIDA: 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS
OREGON: 6-3 SU & 4-5 ATS
This list is interesting because three of the teams on it have won national championships in the last six NCAA tournaments, and every one of the seven teams appears headed for the NCAA tournament in 2024.
Worst Road Teams
There have been 11 teams that have won less than 15% of their road games outright in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years. That is an ugly number. The combined ATS record of these teams is arguably worse, 23-71 (24.5%)! There is no reason to discontinue fading these teams on the road in 2024.
LOUISVILLE: 1-10 SU & 5-6 ATS
NOTRE DAME: 1-9 SU & ATS
PITTSBURGH: 0-9 SU & 3-6 ATS
WAKE FOREST: 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS
DEPAUL: 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS
ST JOHNS: 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS
MARYLAND: 1-7 SU & 1-6 ATS
MINNESOTA: 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS
CALIFORNIA: 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS
UTAH: 0-4 SU & ATS
GEORGIA: 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS
This list has notable teams like Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Minnesota, and Utah on it for 2024, all teams fighting for their postseason lives right now. I’ve shared evidence already of how much home-court advantage means in late-season power conference games. It means even more when facing the teams on this fade list.
Best Revenge Teams
An angle that produces some definitive results is that of revenge, or when a team lost the initial game versus a conference opponent earlier in the season and how they responded. The following is a list of the teams that performed best in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2019 when playing with revenge motivation:
OREGON: 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS
VILLANOVA: 6-1 SU & ATS
NORTH CAROLINA: 4-1 SU & ATS
FLORIDA STATE: 2-0 SU & ATS
CONNECTICUT: 4-1 SU & 3-1 ATS
KENTUCKY: 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS
TENNESSEE: 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS
MICHIGAN STATE: 5-1 SU & ATS
OHIO STATE: 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS
RUTGERS: 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS
KANSAS: 6-1 SU & 5-1 ATS
Seeing how Oregon, Villanova, and Kansas have fared best in revenge, I figured sharing each team’s payback opportunities the rest of the way would be prudent. The Ducks will face three revenge spots this year: Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. Villanova has no revenge spots remaining, while the Jayhawks’ only chance for payback is against Kansas State on 3/5.
Worst Revenge Teams
Alternatively, revenge hasn’t proven to be a good motivating factor for these teams:
LOUISVILLE: 0-5 SU & 3-2 ATS
NC STATE: 1-5 SU & ATS
INDIANA: 1-6 SU & ATS
ARIZONA: 0-5 SU & ATS
GEORGIA: 2-8 SU & 4-6 ATS
GEORGETOWN: 2-10 SU & 6-6 ATS
MARYLAND: 1-4 SU & ATS
MINNESOTA: 2-9 SU & 5-6 ATS
OREGON STATE: 2-9 SU & 6-5 ATS
USC: 1-5 SU & ATS
WASHINGTON STATE: 1-5 SU & ATS
Arizona and Washington State are curious names on this list, as both are frontrunners in the quest for the final Pac-12 title ever. Unfortunately, neither team will have any revenge opportunities to go against in the final two weeks, but other teams on this list who’ve struggled in that situation will. Specifically, Indiana will host Wisconsin on 2/27.
On Totals – Over and Under Teams
There have been 12 Power 6 conference teams that have gone Over the total in 65% of their games or more in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years:
DUKE: 13-7 Over the total
PROVIDENCE: 12-4 Over the total
WASHINGTON: 12-6 Over the total
WEST VIRGINIA: 15-5 Over the total
UTAH: 11-5 Over the total
MINNESOTA: 15-3 Over the total
NEBRASKA: 16-6 Over the total
OREGON STATE: 12-6 Over the total
SOUTH CAROLINA: 13-6 Over the total
XAVIER: 12-6 Over the total
ARKANSAS: 14-6 Over the total
AUBURN: 13-7 Over the total
There have only been four teams that have gone Under the total in 65% of their games or more in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last five years:
VIRGINIA TECH: 12-5 Under the total
CLEMSON: 13-7 Under the total
NORTHWESTERN: 12-6 Under the total
PENN STATE: 14-7 Under the total
The sheer volume of teams going Over at a high clip compared to Under should lead you to some answers on which way on a total to side when nothing else is considered.
Home Court Advantage and Totals Results by Conference
Interestingly, all of the Power 6 conferences show results indicating that home-court advantage is quite important in the latter part of the season. In fact, over the last five years, all but the SEC conference have shown home teams being profitable, going 52.5% or better ATS, with the SEC checking in a bit less at 51.5%. Since I came out with this article for the first time six years ago, I have suggested that, without any other key information, simply betting the home team in these games would have been a sound strategy. Bettors who heeded that advice in 2018-2023 would have gone 471-378 ATS, good for 55.5% and a profit of $5,520 on $100 wagers! Similarly, all six leagues are showing profitable figures for betting Overs late in the season. This would be another blind strategy to get you started with nothing else to consider. Here are the home and totals records for each conference in order of ATS success over the last five seasons:
Big East: 61-33 SU & 55-38 (59.1%), Overs 49-43 (53.3%)
ACC: 91-49 SU & 80-58 (58%), Overs 73-65 (52.9%)
Pac-12: 66-41 SU & 59-45 (56.7%), Overs 61-45 (57.5%)
Big Ten: 91-50 SU & 76-63 (54.7%), Overs 76-63 (54.7%)
Big 12: 66-37 SU & 52-47 (52.5%), Overs 54-48 (52.9%)
SEC: 85-52 SU & 69-65 (51.5%), Overs 74-62 (54.4%)
Trends by Line Range
Some trends have developed in the various conferences specific to line range. Take a look.
* There has been a definitive line point in ACC betting: 6 points. ACC home teams in the -6 to +6 range are on a 54-35 SU & 58-29-2 ATS (66.7%) run, a sign that home-court advantage can be the deciding factor in expectedly tight games. ACC hosts favored by more than 6 points have gone 54-8 SU but 30-30-2 ATS (50%), while those playing as underdogs of more than 6 points are an ugly 3-13 SU and 7-9 ATS (43.8%).
* There are some very interesting trends in Big East games, with lofty totals of 150 or higher posted since 2018. In these games in the last two weeks of the regular season, hosts are 29-9 SU and 28-10 ATS (73.7%), while totals are 24-14 Over (63.2%).
* Home favorites of more than 11 points in Big 12 last two weeks’ games are 15-1 SU but just 6-10 ATS (37.5%) in their last 16 tries. The best line range to play Big 12 home favorites has been in the -3 to -10.5 range as they are 45-14 SU and 31-24-4 ATS (56.4%).
* Larger Big 12 home underdogs in late-season games have thrived, going 12-11 SU and 17-5-1 ATS (77.3%) in their last 23 as dogs of 3.5 points or more.
* Contrary to popular belief, laying a lot of points with hosts in the Big Ten has been a rewarding strategy, as those favored by double-digits are on a 22-4 SU and 17-9 ATS (65.4%) run since 2018!
* There has been a line range sweet spot in late-season Pac-12 betting, as home favorites of 6-9.5 points have gone 22-3 SU and 17-8 ATS (68%), with the hosts in these games yielding just 64.4 PPG.
* Pac-12 hosts have thrived in late-season low-totaled games, going 27-16 SU and 27-14-2 ATS (65.9%) in their last 43 contests with posted totals of less than 136.
* Small SEC home dogs have struggled in the final two weeks of the regular season, as those at +4.5 points or less are just 6-20 SU and 7-19 ATS (26.9%) since 2018.
Using this information against the rest of the 2024 regular season schedules for all the power conference teams should continue to reap big rewards.
