College basketball projections and best bets
Yesterday was not particularly kind to us from a betting perspective, but days like that will happen and we’ll continue to trust the process and follow the numbers. Unfortunately, today there are only a handful of women’s games but a decent slate of men’s games to help get us back on track. On the season, I’m not 51-47-1 on men’s basketball and 92-60 on women’s. It’s funny because I use the same base formula for both sports, but given the market disparity between the two, it’s no surprise women’s numbers have beaten the line more often. The frustrating part for me is, I had an outstanding and majorly profitable season in men’s last season but have struggled picking winners so far this year. Let’s hope that changes starting today
These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring a few times per week on VSiN.com now that we’ve gotten through bowl season, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, January 16th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | Colorado State | -22.2 | 140.6 |
| Akron | Western Michigan | 10.7 | 145.3 |
| Alabama | Missouri | 22.6 | 160.1 |
| Arkansas | Texas A&M | -0.4 | 147.7 |
| Ball State | Eastern Michigan | 0.7 | 141.4 |
| Baylor | Kansas State | 6.2 | 153.8 |
| Boise State | Nevada-Las Vegas | 3.2 | 145.4 |
| Bowling Green State | Miami (OH) | 0.3 | 144.1 |
| Brigham Young | Iowa State | 4.9 | 147.2 |
| Buffalo | Toledo | -18.5 | 154.8 |
| Butler | Xavier | -2.5 | 151.9 |
| Central Michigan | Ohio | -16.1 | 144.9 |
| Charlotte | Rice | 11.3 | 138.2 |
| Cincinnati | TCU | 3.1 | 152.9 |
| Clemson | Georgia Tech | 13.7 | 147.6 |
| Dayton | Saint Louis | 14.4 | 146.6 |
| Duquesne | Richmond | 0.2 | 139.0 |
| Florida | Tennessee | -10.5 | 157.3 |
| Fresno State | San Jose State | -1.3 | 142.2 |
| Georgia | South Carolina | -4.4 | 135.9 |
| Indiana | Purdue | -11.5 | 150.5 |
| Indiana State | Missouri State | 12.2 | 151.4 |
| Kansas | Oklahoma State | 3.6 | 142.4 |
| Kent State | Northern Illinois | 6.7 | 157.8 |
| NC State | Wake Forest | -2.1 | 150.5 |
| New Mexico | Utah State | 1.5 | 151.2 |
| Penn State | Wisconsin | -7.2 | 146.2 |
| Pittsburgh | Syracuse | 3.8 | 143.7 |
| Samford | Western Carolina | 2.1 | 153.8 |
| Seton Hall | St. John’s (NY) | -3.3 | 147.1 |
| Southern Methodist | Temple | 11.9 | 140.9 |
Bets:
Baylor/Kansas St Over 140.5
Charlotte -2.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| DePaul | Xavier | 24.5 | 134.5 |
| Iowa | Wisconsin | 24.8 | 149.2 |
| Kansas | Texas | -24.5 | 140.6 |
| South Florida | UTSA | 6.0 | 123.1 |
