College basketball projections and best bets
Yesterday did not go well for my college hoops bets, as my men’s bets split 1-1 and my women’s bets even went 1-3. It’s not often that we go 33%, but it does happen to the best of us so we’re on to Thursday. Today’s slate is packed for both men’s and women’s, so we have ample opportunity to bounce back from yesterday in a big way. Follow me on X (@TShoeIndex) to get today’s women’s bets as I make them, and let’s cash some bets. Here are today’s projections.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring a few times per week on VSiN.com now that we’ve gotten through bowl season, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, January 18th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Abilene Christian | Tarleton State | -5.4 | 141.7 |
| Albany (NY) | Massachusetts-Lowell | 0.4 | 151.8 |
| Austin Peay | North Alabama | 8.3 | 140.4 |
| Binghamton | Vermont | -9.1 | 143.0 |
| Cal State Bakersfield | UC Riverside | 5.5 | 138.2 |
| Cal State Fullerton | UC Davis | -1.4 | 138.0 |
| Cal State Northridge | UC Santa Barbara | 4.0 | 151.7 |
| California | Washington | -4.4 | 158.4 |
| Campbell | William & Mary | -2.5 | 138.8 |
| Central Arkansas | Lipscomb | -18.3 | 150.2 |
| Coastal Carolina | Georgia Southern | 8.1 | 152.5 |
| College of Charleston | Towson | 9.8 | 138.5 |
| Colorado | Oregon | 5.9 | 151.7 |
| Delaware | Stony Brook | 9.9 | 145.9 |
| Denver | North Dakota State | 2.4 | 167.2 |
| Drexel | Monmouth | 10.8 | 136.7 |
| Eastern Washington | Weber State | -7.1 | 145.6 |
| Elon | UNC Wilmington | -4.9 | 151.9 |
| Florida Atlantic | Wichita State | 15.7 | 151.5 |
| Florida International | Liberty | -13.9 | 147.0 |
| Gonzaga | Pepperdine | 7.6 | 148.2 |
| Grand Canyon | Utah Valley | 14.9 | 142.2 |
| Green Bay | Wright State | -9.5 | 150.2 |
| Hampton | Hofstra | -12.8 | 150.5 |
| Hawaii | Long Beach State | 0.1 | 150.1 |
| Idaho | Idaho State | -3.0 | 137.6 |
| Illinois | Michigan | 5.6 | 155.0 |
| Jacksonville | Queens (NC) | 0.3 | 155.9 |
| James Madison | Louisiana-Monroe | 26.8 | 147.8 |
| Kennesaw State | North Florida | 1.3 | 160.1 |
| Lindenwood | Southern Illinois-Edwardsville | -4.2 | 135.6 |
| Little Rock | Southern Indiana | 2.2 | 151.0 |
| Loyola Marymount | San Francisco | -11.5 | 138.3 |
| Maine | Maryland-Baltimore County | 3.0 | 152.6 |
| Marshall | Old Dominion | 5.4 | 151.3 |
| Memphis | South Florida | 8.4 | 153.3 |
| Michigan State | Minnesota | 11.8 | 140.7 |
| Middle Tennessee | UTEP | -7.5 | 128.4 |
| Milwaukee | Northern Kentucky | -1.9 | 155.3 |
| Morehead State | Tennessee-Martin | 8.6 | 153.3 |
| New Hampshire | NJIT | 7.1 | 150.5 |
| New Mexico State | Western Kentucky | 0.6 | 142.9 |
| North Carolina A&T | Northeastern | -7.8 | 150.9 |
| North Dakota | Oral Roberts | -2.7 | 150.5 |
| Northern Arizona | Portland State | -6.9 | 140.0 |
| Northern Colorado | Sacramento State | 2.6 | 154.1 |
| Omaha | South Dakota State | -7.4 | 149.2 |
| Oregon State | Utah | -15.9 | 148.6 |
| Pacific | Santa Clara | -17.2 | 148.8 |
| Portland | San Diego | -3.0 | 151.1 |
| Seattle | Stephen F. Austin | -5.2 | 144.5 |
| South Alabama | Troy | -3.2 | 149.7 |
| South Dakota | St. Thomas | -3.1 | 143.6 |
| Southern Utah | Utah Tech | 4.0 | 154.5 |
| Stanford | Washington State | -0.7 | 147.5 |
| Tennessee State | Tennessee Tech | 12.2 | 146.6 |
| Texas-Rio Grande Valley | UT Arlington | -9.8 | 156.0 |
| UC Irvine | UC San Diego | 8.0 | 140.1 |
| UNC Asheville | Winthrop | -5.0 | 150.4 |
Bets:
Coastal Carolina +2.5
FIU/Liberty Over 139.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Abilene Christian | Tarleton State | 14.0 | 133.1 |
| Alabama | Louisiana State | -5.8 | 145.3 |
| Albany (NY) | Massachusetts-Lowell | 14.6 | 116.9 |
| Appalachian State | Coastal Carolina | 10.9 | 146.4 |
| Auburn | Vanderbilt | -3.6 | 124.5 |
| Bellarmine | North Alabama | -3.3 | 146.2 |
| Binghamton | Vermont | -11.2 | 123.7 |
| Boston College | Wake Forest | 13.8 | 137.2 |
| Cal State Bakersfield | UC Riverside | -13.2 | 124.1 |
| Cal State Fullerton | UC Davis | -7.0 | 127.0 |
| Cal State Northridge | UC Santa Barbara | -27.4 | 130.8 |
| Canisius | Quinnipiac | 2.6 | 129.1 |
| Central Arkansas | Eastern Kentucky | -2.6 | 128.1 |
| Clemson | Louisville | -11.0 | 141.8 |
| Denver | North Dakota State | -5.9 | 129.6 |
| Detroit Mercy | Green Bay | -22.4 | 125.1 |
| Duke | Virginia Tech | 0.9 | 134.9 |
| Eastern Washington | Weber State | 20.4 | 127.7 |
| Florida Gulf Coast | Queens (NC) | 35.6 | 128.8 |
| Florida International | Liberty | 5.4 | 134.4 |
| Florida State | Syracuse | -0.7 | 154.6 |
| Georgia | Missouri | -6.1 | 136.4 |
| Georgia Southern | James Madison | -4.1 | 144.2 |
| Georgia State | Southern Mississippi | -7.8 | 139.5 |
| Georgia Tech | North Carolina | -1.3 | 128.6 |
| Gonzaga | Loyola Marymount | 23.3 | 141.7 |
| Grand Canyon | Utah Valley | 14.7 | 116.5 |
| Houston Christian | New Orleans | -0.6 | 121.8 |
| Idaho | Idaho State | 6.1 | 116.3 |
| Incarnate Word | Nicholls State | 4.9 | 116.4 |
| Iona | Saint Peter’s | 15.5 | 117.9 |
| Kennesaw State | Stetson | -2.7 | 112.1 |
| Lamar | Texas A&M-Commerce | 15.9 | 135.4 |
| Lindenwood | Southern Illinois-Edwardsville | -0.4 | 153.2 |
| Little Rock | Southern Indiana | -4.7 | 122.4 |
| Louisiana | Louisiana-Monroe | -2.6 | 127.2 |
| Maine | Maryland-Baltimore County | 17.0 | 125.3 |
| Manhattan | Niagara | 7.0 | 126.3 |
| Marist | Mount St. Mary’s | -1.1 | 115.8 |
| Marshall | Old Dominion | 1.8 | 135.4 |
| McNeese State | Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | -25.8 | 143.1 |
| Mercer | UNC Greensboro | -2.0 | 125.8 |
| Miami (FL) | NC State | -11.3 | 132.3 |
| Middle Tennessee | UTEP | 18.2 | 135.7 |
| Milwaukee | Oakland | -0.7 | 137.2 |
| Mississippi State | Tennessee | 8.5 | 145.4 |
| Morehead State | Tennessee-Martin | 5.4 | 129.6 |
| New Hampshire | NJIT | 4.9 | 120.0 |
| New Mexico State | Western Kentucky | -7.5 | 124.2 |
| North Dakota | Oral Roberts | -9.8 | 153.2 |
| Northern Arizona | Portland State | 12.2 | 147.3 |
| Northern Colorado | Sacramento State | 15.2 | 120.6 |
| Northwestern State | Southeastern Louisiana | -13.3 | 117.6 |
| Notre Dame | Virginia | 13.8 | 145.7 |
| Omaha | South Dakota State | -19.8 | 145.3 |
| Pacific | San Diego | 2.7 | 139.6 |
| Penn State | Purdue | 16.6 | 149.7 |
| Pepperdine | Santa Clara | -19.0 | 121.9 |
| Portland | Saint Mary’s (CA) | 10.3 | 124.2 |
| Purdue Fort Wayne | Youngstown State | 9.5 | 123.4 |
| Rider | Siena | -8.1 | 128.9 |
| Samford | Western Carolina | 16.2 | 120.3 |
| Seattle | Stephen F. Austin | -14.5 | 143.7 |
| South Dakota | St. Thomas | 8.5 | 137.4 |
| Southern Utah | Utah Tech | -4.5 | 141.6 |
| Tennessee State | Tennessee Tech | -4.5 | 130.8 |
| Texas State | Troy | -1.3 | 144.0 |
| Texas-Rio Grande Valley | UT Arlington | -5.9 | 139.7 |
| UC Irvine | UC San Diego | 3.3 | 113.4 |
