Early Final Four Sharp Report

Josh Appelbaum

March 28, 2022

Elite 8 weekend has come and gone. Favorites went 2-0 SU and ATS on Sunday. Favorites are now 39-20 SU in March Madness, but dogs are 33-26 ATS (56%). Unders went 2-0 on Sunday to improve to 34-26 (57%). Unders are 11-1 over the last 12 March Madness games.

We are now down to the Final Four. Here are the latest odds to cut down the nets at BetMGM.

Duke %plussign%155

Kansas %plussign%185

Villanova %plussign%400

North Carolina %plussign%500

And here are the latest odds to win Most Outstanding Player.

Banchero %plussign%300

Agbaji %plussign%450

Gillespie %plussign%800

Martin %plussign%900

Samuels %plussign%1200

Bacot %plussign%1400

Manek %plussign%1600

Williams %plussign%1800

Love, Roach %plussign%2200

Now we turn our attention to Monday, where a new week of betting begins with a pair of Basketball Classic semifinal games, 9 NBA games and 5 NHL games.

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's take a look at the early action for the Final Four, which kicks off on Saturday April 2nd…

Villanova vs Kansas

Both of these top two seeds are riding 9-game win streaks. Villlanova (30-7) is the 2-seed and coming off a 50-44 win over 5-seed Houston in the Elite 8. Previously, Villanova beat 11-seed Michigan 63-55, took down 7-seed Ohio State 71-61 and crushed 15-seed Delaware 80-60. Now they face 1-seed Kansas (32-6), who just dominated 10-seed Miami 76-50. Kansas has also beaten 4-seed Providence 66-61, edged 9-seed Creighton 79-72 and crushed 16-seed Texas Southern 83-56.

This line opened with Kansas listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk, driving Kansas up from -3.5 to -4. Some shops are up to -4.5. One big reason for the jump: Villanova starting guard Justin Moore (15 PPG) will miss the game with a season-ending achilles injury. Ken Pom has Kansas winning by just one point (70-69), but that may not be factoring in the Moore injury. He has Kansas ranked 4th and Villanova 9th. The total has also ticked up slightly from 123.5 to 133, indicating some slight over support. Villanova plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball (62.6 tempo). Kansas is much quicker (69.5).

North Carolina vs Duke

One of college basketball's greatest rivalries renews once again. North Carolina (28-9) is the 8-seed and coming off a 69-49 shellacking of 15-seed Saint Peter's in the Elite 8. North Carolina also took down 4-seed UCLA 73-66, upset 1-seed Baylor 93-86 and crushed 9-seed Marquette 95-63. Meanwhile, Duke (32-6) is the 2-seed and just brushed off 4-seed Arkansas 78-69. Duke also beat 3-seed Texas Tech 78-73, dismissed 7-seed Michigan State 85-76 and crushed 15-seed Cal State Fullerton 78-61.

This line opened with Duke listed as a 4-point favorite. Respected money seems to be leaning with Coach K in his final hurrah, driving Duke up from -4 to -4.5. Ken Pom has Duke winning by four points (79-75). He has Duke ranked 8th and North Carolina 16th. The over has also taken in some notable action, rising from 150 to 151.