Final Four Best Bets
We have made it to the Final Four! The prevailing storyline is UConn’s dominance, with 10 straight wins in the tournament by 13 or more while covering rather easily in every game. They are installed as a heavy favorite to win the title, but I am not sure it’s an open-and-shut case. Both games could provide some issues with the circumstances play out against them. We did see one poor half of basketball vs Illinois, but Illinois could not take advantage of it. Alabama will launch up to 50 3-point shots in the semifinal. If they get hot, they have a puncher’s chance. North Carolina State and Purdue have solid inside-outside games that could make life difficult, so I’m excited to see how this plays out. Let’s look at my Final Four best bets.
Alabama vs UConn (-11.5), Total 160.5
How Alabama shoots the ball will likely decide the spread and total in this game. They do not have the defensive ability to shut down UConn so they will need to score to win. As I mentioned, I expect Alabama to launch from long range and try to simply outscore UConn. The problem is the Huskies have been very good defending the arch all tournament.
Connecticut’s offense has been wildly efficient all year long, consistently in the top 10% in the nation, but they play at a much slower pace than people realize. They are 303rd in the nation in possessions per game and have no problem keeping everything in the half-court. That will also limit the transition game and specifically transition 3’s from Alabama.
I’m willing to bet that Alabama is not able to light it up from long range here, but instead of the side, let’s look to the total.
Final Four Best Bet: Under 160.5 (Lean UConn -11.5)
NC State vs. Purdue (-9.5) Total 146.5
It will be very interesting to watch how this game is officiated. A huge storyline in Purdue’s Elite 8 game vs Tennessee was the number of fouls called on Tennessee bigs when dealing with Zack Edey. That is going to be a point of emphasis again here. If Edey can draw 10 fouls without committing a single foul again in this game, then NC State is in trouble.
I would be surprised if officials have not discussed how to officiate Edey coming into this game. The product simply is not very good when you have that lopsided of an advantage to one side. It does offer a great in-game opportunity. DJ Burns is one of the few players in the nation who Edey will have difficulty moving. If he is able to stay out of foul trouble, NC State will not have to consistently double and triple Edey in the post. If he gets in foul trouble, then watch out. I am going to play the game before the tip, but I will be adding to one side or the other depending on how the game is officiated in the first 5-10 minutes. The more whistles, the more I will have on Purdue. The fewer whistles, the more I load up on NC State.
While Purdue has Edey, keep an eye on DJ Horne for NC State. He’s been a key to the run though the ACC and NCAA tournaments by limiting turnovers and creating space. He has a positive matchup vs. the guards of Purdue and has a chance to be the difference-maker in this contest.
Final Four Best Bet Bet: NC State +9.5 (Lean Under 146.5)
