Power Six Conference Tournament Betting Trends
Last week, I introduced the first of a three-part series on key betting data for the college basketball conference tournaments. In it, I covered the 15 mid-major conferences that tipped off their tournaments between March 4th and March 9th. In the second part, I covered the 11 mid-major conferences starting their tournaments a bit later, specifically March 12th or beyond. We’ve reached the conclusion of the series, as this piece will cover the Power Six conference tournaments that will commence on Tuesday, March 12th or later. These are the big boys, the tournaments that command the biggest audiences and, hence, the most attention from bettors. These leagues also have the most teams in the running for the NCAA tournament top seeds as well as most teams on the “bubble,” so the stakes are always heightened.
One final reminder from the first two parts of the series, bettors should understand the value of having a bye in conference tournaments is typically significant, especially when they are believed to be the better team. In fact, conference tournament favorites off a bye were 621-193 SU and 394-338-17 ATS (53.8%) over the last 10 seasons heading into 2024 action against teams that played earlier in that tournament. That is a winning wager without anything else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets earlier in these tournaments, especially if you are led to believe the underdog may have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a “play-in” type of game.
In this piece, the power conference leagues I cover are:
ACC – March 12
BIG 12 – March 12
BIG EAST – March 13
BIG TEN – March 13
PAC 12 – March 13
SEC – March 13
For my latest strength ratings, including Power Ratings, Effective Strength Indicators, Bettors’ Ratings, Recent Ratings, and Schedule Strengths, visit the NCAAMBB TEAM POWER RANKINGS page on VSiN.com, sortable by conference.
ACC
Key Trends
· ACC teams off a bye and playing as favorites of 4 points or more against teams that have already played in the tournament are 34-2 SU and 23-12-1 ATS (65.7%) since 2015.
· ACC opening round favorites have gone 20-1 SU and 14-7 ATS (66.7%) since 2016.
· ACC second-round favorites are on a 20-8 SU and 18-10 ATS (64.3%) surge over the last seven tournaments.
· ACC semifinal underdogs are 12-19 SU but 21-7-3 ATS (75%) since 2007 and 8-2-1 ATS since 2017. However, both dogs lost a year ago.
BIG 12
Key Trends
· Underdogs in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney are on an 8-7 SU and 13-2 ATS (86.7%) surge.
· Big 12 Semifinal favorites are on a 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) run dating back to 2013.
· Laying 4 points or more has proven quite risky in the Big 12 tourney, as favorites of this magnitude are 30-12 SU but just 16-26 ATS (38.1%) since 2014.
· Totals of 147 or higher have gone 14-5 (73.7%) Under during the last 10 years of the Big 12 tournament.
BIG EAST
Key Trends
· Only two of the last 19 Big East quarterfinal teams that enjoyed a round 1 bye have lost to a team that played, going 12-7 ATS (63.2%).
· Big East tourney favorites in the -5 to -9.5 range have been vulnerable, 21-12 SU but 10-23 ATS (30.3%) over the last 10 seasons.
· Big East quarterfinal double-digit favorites are on an 11-2 ATS (84.6%) run since 2006.
· Big East semifinal dogs have been a profitable play of late, 8-8 SU but 13-3 ATS (81.3%) since 2015.
· Eleven of the last 13 Big East championship games have gone Under the total (84.6%).
BIG TEN
Key Trends
· Against public perception, games with totals of 130 or less are on a 16-6-1 Over (72.7%) run in the Big Ten tournament.
· Teams that are off a bye in the Big Ten tournament are 17-13 SU but 7-22-1 ATS (24.1%) versus teams that already played since 2018.
· Big Ten tourney conference title game favorites are currently on a 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS (16.7%) skid.
PAC-12
Key Trends
· Pac-12 tourney favorites of 4.5 points or less boast a point spread record of 29-10-1 ATS (74.4%) over the last 10 years.
· Pac-12 semifinal favorites have gone 9-1 SU and ATS in the last five tournaments.
· Pac-12 teams that have enjoyed a bye in the tournament have gone 21-10 Over the total (67.7%) in their first game while scoring 78.5 PPG.
SEC
Key Trends
· Lines of 7 points or more should be noted for two reasons in the SEC tourney. First off, favorites in these games are on a 29-7 SU and 22-12-2 ATS (64.7%) run since 2014, and second, these games have gone Under the total at a 25-10-1 (71.4%) rate.
· The bye has proven critical in the SEC tournament of late, as rested teams are on a 28-10 SU and 24-14 ATS (63.2%) run versus teams that have already played.
· Totals of 145 or higher have gone 21-7-1 Under the total (75%) in the SEC tournament since 2009
