Grambling State vs. Montana State March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 16 vs. No. 16 First Four matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Grambling State Tigers face the Montana State Bobcats for a spot in the first round.
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How to Watch Grambling State vs. Montana State
When: 6:40 pm ET on Wednesday, March 20th
Where: UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio
Watch: TruTV
Odds for Grambling State vs. Montana State
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Montana State -4
Total: 134
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Midwest Region No. 16 Grambling State Tigers
Grambling State is in danger of getting blown out by anybody in this tournament, and the Tigers’ offensive issues are the reason for that. They’re outside of the top 300 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and that’s a problem considering they aren’t all that good defensively. It will take an uncharacteristically hot shooting performance in order for Grambling State to remain competitive. One of the only things the Bulldogs were good at during the year was getting to the free throw line. But the smaller teams don’t usually have the same whistle when it comes to March. Maybe the Tigers will have it in the First Four.
Midwest Region No. 16 Montana State Bobcats
Montana State was the fifth seed in the Big Sky tournament, but the Bobcats found a way to win it all and punch their ticket to the dance. But this is a team that doesn’t have much hope beyond that. Montana State enters the tournament with a 17-17 record, and the team ranked right around 200th in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bobcats were also right near the bottom of college basketball’s ranks in 2PT% defense. And if they struggled to cover weaker and smaller opponents around the basket, they’ll definitely struggle against some of the best teams in the nation. Montana State’s only real shot at pulling any sort of upset is by getting super hot from deep. And the Bobcats did shoot it pretty well during the year. At least the team gets one crack at a subpar team in the First Four.
Grambling State vs. Montana State Preview & Prediction
It is not an easy trek from Bozeman to Dayton, nor is it an easy itinerary from Grambling, Louisiana, but both teams have to be excited to be heading to UD Arena. This is Grambling’s first-ever Division I NCAA Tournament appearance. They had two at the Division II level in 1958 and 1976, so these players are making program history.
The Big Sky Tournament was littered with upsets, but Montana State pulled off two of their own to wind up in the Big Dance. They beat Weber State and rival Montana for a bid and bring a sharp-shooting group to Ohio. The Bobcats are a top-60 team in 2P% and 3P%, but they are not good at all on defense.
Grambling’s stats require a lot of context, as they played a very difficult non-conference schedule and took some lumps against the likes of Colorado, Iowa State, Dayton, Washington State, Drake, and Florida. They lost to Drake by 12. They lost every other game by at least 18. The game against Dayton was at UD Arena, so they have played there and made that trip already this season. This will be Montana State’s first game east of the Mississippi River this season.
Per KenPom, the Tigers played the fourth-toughest non-conference schedule, so you’ll have to consider their SWAC numbers and figure that the truth lies somewhere in between. They did shoot 36% in SWAC games, but Montana State is also quite a bit better than all of those teams and higher-rated by a decent margin over Grambling.
Estimated Score: Montana State 70, Grambling 66
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