Nevada vs. Dayton March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 10 vs. No. 7 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, the Nevada Wolf Pack face the Dayton Flyers in first-round action.
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How to Watch Nevada vs. Dayton
When: 4:30 pm ET on Thursday, March 21st
Where: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
Watch: TBS
Odds for Nevada vs. Dayton
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Nevada -1
Total: 137.5
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Nevada vs. Dayton Matchup
West Region No. 10 Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada is coming off a great year in an under-appreciated Mountain West conference. The Wolf Pack are a top-40 team when it comes to both offensive and defensive efficiency. Offensively, Nevada can really shoot the 3-ball, with the team being in the high 30s in 3PT%. Though, the team can stand to shoot a few more. The Wolf Pack also get to the free throw line regularly. That will make them a tough team to handle late in games. In Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear, Nevada will have a backcourt that can hang with anyone. And frontcourt partners KJ Hymes and Nick Davidson are both solid players. Nevada just needs to avoid being lazy defensively. The Wolf Pack can put opponents on the line too much.
West Region No. 7 Dayton Flyers
It’s a shame Dayton lost Malachi Smith for the year, as this Flyers team had the potential to be borderline special. DaRon Holmes II is one of the most dominant bigs in the nation, and he allows Dayton to play inside-out. However, Holmes is also a good pick-and-pop option now, as he worked hard on his jumper in the offseason. He’s going to present problems for any team the Flyers face. Holmes also has some serious shooters around him, with Nate Santos, Koby Brea and Kobe Elvis all being lethal from deep. There’s a reason the Flyers are a top-five team when it comes to 3PT%. Dayton just needs to find a way to lock in defensively. The team has been lousy on that end of the floor all year. The Flyers need to figure it out as they prepare to face more talented opponents.
Nevada vs. Dayton Preview & Prediction
The Dayton Flyers are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. Their last two appearances as a No. 7 seed have not worked out well, as they lost to Wichita State in 2017 and Syracuse in 2016. We’ll see if things go differently here against an under-seeded Nevada team that actually ranks higher for Bart Torvik and just four spots lower for KenPom.
The Wolf Pack are a top-40 team in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency for Torvik and get a major travel advantage here with the game in Salt Lake City. They’ll also be much more accustomed to the elevation playing in the Mountain West Conference.
This profiles as a potentially high-variance game. Not only are the teams rated close together, but both teams force opponents into a lot of 3s. Both teams shoot 3s very well, but Dayton shoots a lot more of them with a 44.5% 3P Rate and also makes a lot more of them with a 40.2% 3P%. Nevada’s 3P Rate is only 33.6%, but they still shoot well at 36.5%. Both teams had a 3P Rate against over 40%.
Neither team gets the ball inside with great success unless Dayton is getting it to DaRon Holmes III and Nevada is getting it to Nick Davidson. That will be the matchup to watch in this one. This game is absolutely deserving of the coin flip line. Keep an eye on the total here, as Dayton plays really slow, but the emotion and the elevation could be factors in getting Steve Alford to push it a bit with his Wolf Pack squad.
Estimated Score: Nevada 68.4, Dayton 68.3
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