Today we have a smaller than usual College Basketball slate on tap with only 7 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
7 p.m. ET: VCU (-1.5, 139.5) at Dayton
VCU (18-5) has won two straight and just crushed La Salle 96-66, covering as 19.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Dayton (16-7) has also won two in a row and just held off Davidson 69-63 but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites.
This line opened with VCU listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public is relatively split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Dayton move from +2 to +1.5. Some shops are even inching down to +1. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with Dayton plus the points at home.
At DraftKings, Dayton is only taking in 52% of spread bets but a whopping 87% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of wiseguys backing the home dog. Ken Pom has VCU winning by one point (71-70). As a result, savvy value-driven bettors would be wise to shop around an ensure they get Dayton plus the hook (+1.5).
Dayton has the better offensive efficiency (47th vs 61st), three-point shooting (36% vs 34%) and free-throw shooting (74% vs 72%). The Flyers also take better care of the ball, ranking 44th in turnover percentage compared to 126th for VCU.
Dayton is 13-1 at home this season. VCU is 3-3 on the road.
8 p.m. ET: St. John’s at Connecticut (-4, 141.5)
St. John’s (20-3, ranked 12th) has won nine games in a row and just outlasted Marquette 70-64, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Connecticut (16-6, ranked 19th) has won two straight also just beat Marquette 77-69, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Connecticut listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Huskies laying short chalk at home, steaming Connecticut up from -1.5 to -4. Some shops are even approaching -4.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has come down on Connecticut laying the points at home.
At DraftKings, Connecticut is taking in 60% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has Connecticut winning by just one point (72-71). As a result, those looking to follow the sharp Huskies move may prefer a moneyline play at -180. At DraftKings, Connecticut is receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, further indication of wiseguys playing the Huskies to earn a win on their home court.
Connecticut has the superior offensive efficiency (10th vs 74th), effective field goal percentage (57% vs 50%), three-point shooting (37% vs 30%) and free-throw shooting (78% vs 69%). The Huskies also enjoy a notable rest advantage, having last played on February 1st compared to St. John’s last playing on February 4th.
