Today we wrap up the work week with a 31-game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
7 p.m. ET: South Dakota vs North Dakota State (-3.5, 165.5)
This is the Summit League quarterfinals. Both teams received a bye in the first round.
South Dakota (18-13) is the 5-seed and just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 92-79 win over North Dakota, covering as 4-point home favorites in their regular season finale. Meanwhile, North Dakota State (21-10) is the 4-seed and has won four of their last five games, beating South Dakota 82-78 but failing to cover as 6.5-point home favorites in their final regular season game.
This line opened with North Dakota State listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Bison, steaming North Dakota State up from -2.5 to -3.5. At DraftKings, North Dakota State is receiving roughly 75% of spread bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in their favor.
Ken Pom has North Dakota State winning by seven points (90-83). He also has the Bison ranked much higher (130th vs 231st).
Many pros have elected to protect themselves by playing the Bison on the moneyline (-170). At DraftKings, North Dakota State is taking in 84% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy pro money banking on a Bison straight up victory.
North Dakota State has the better offensive efficiency (51st vs 116th), defensive efficiency (290th vs 333rd), effective field goal percentage (58% vs 51%), three-point shooting (40% vs 32%) and free-throw shooting (79% vs 72%). The Bison are allowing 74 PPG compared to the Coyotes giving up 83 PPG.
The Bison also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on February 26th compared to the Coyotes last playing on March 1st.
8 p.m. ET: Little Rock vs Southeast Missouri State (-2.5, 136.5)
This is the Ohio Valley Conference semifinals.
Little Rock (19-13) is the 4-seed and just beat Tennessee Martin 82-77 in yesterday’s quarterfinal matchup, pushing as 5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Southeast Missouri State (20-11) is the 1-seed and just saw their ten-game win streak come to an end, falling to Eastern Illinois 73-58 and losing outright as 5.5-road favorites in their final regular season game.
This line opened with Southeast Missouri State listed as a short 1-point neutral site favorite. Wiseguys seem to think this line was a bit short and have steamed Southeast Missouri State up from -1 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, Southeast Missouri State is receiving 78% of spread bets and 90% of spread dollars. At Circa, Southeast Missouri State is taking in 60% of spread bets and 98% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Redhawks.
Ken Pom has Southeast Missouri State winning by one point (69-68). He also has the Redhawks ranked higher (205th vs 217th). With this in mind, many value-driven bettors have decided to play the RedHawks on the moneyline at -145. At DraftKings, Southeast Missouri State is taking in 78% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy one-way support in favor of a Redhawks straight up win.
Southeast Missouri State has the better offensive efficiency (243rd vs 303rd), effective field goal percentage (52% vs 50%) and free-throw percentage (72% vs 70%). The Redhawks also take better care of the ball (86th in turnover percentage vs 334th).
Southeast Missouri enjoys a notable “rest vs tired” advantage as well, having last played on March 1st while Little Rock played yesterday and is now on the second leg of a back-to-back.
9 p.m. ET: Pepperdine vs Portland (-1.5, 157)
This is the second round of the West Coast Conference tournament. Both teams received a bye in the first round.
Pepperdine (10-21) is the 9-seed and has dropped eight of their last nine games, falling to Washington State 90-83 and failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs in their final regular season matchup. On the other hand, Portland (12-19) is the 8-seed and just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to San Diego 82-80 and losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites in their regular season finale.
This line opened with Portland listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have quietly laid the chalk with Portland, as the Pilots are being juiced up -1.5 (-115) and even creeping up to -2 at some shops.
At DraftKings, Portland is receiving 78% of spread bets and 83% of spread dollars. At Circa, Portland is taking in 58% of spread bets and 64% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Pilots.
Many wiseguys have looked to mitigate some risk by playing Portland on the moneyline (-130). At DraftKings, Portland is taking in 77% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy smart money in favor of a Pilots straight up victory.
Portland has the better offensive efficiency (198th vs 213th), effective field goal percentage (50% vs 49%), free-throw percentage (78% vs 71%).
Portland is 2-0 against Pepperdine this season, winning 84-64 and 87-67.
