The Second Round of March Madness kicks off today with eight NCAA Tournament games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
5:15 p.m. ET: Michigan vs Texas A&M (-3, 143.5)
Michigan (26-9) is the 5-seed and just held off UC San Diego 68-65, covering as 2.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (23-10) is the 4-seed and just took down Yale 80-71, covering as 7.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and is leaning toward Michigan plus the points. However, despite 57% of spread bets backing the Wolverines at DraftKings, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Texas A&M -1.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Aggies, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Texas A&M is only receiving 43% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has Texas A&M winning by one point (71-70). He also has the Aggies ranked higher (18th vs 25th). With this in mind, many pros have decided to mitigate some risk and play the Aggies on the moneyline (-150). At Circa, Texas A&M is taking in 48% of moneyline bets but a whopping 71% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing the Aggies to win straight up.
Texas A&M has the better offensive rebound percentage (1st vs 79th) and holds their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (15th vs 62nd).
7:45 p.m. ET: BYU vs Wisconsin (-1.5, 155.5)
BYU (25-9) is the 6-seed and just dismissed VCU 80-71, covering as 2.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Wisconsin (27-9) is the 3-seed and just brushed aside Montana 85-66, covering as 16.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have quietly sided with the Badgers, driving Wisconsin up from -1 to -1.5. At Circa, Wisconsin is receiving 54% of spread bets but 72% of spread dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has Wisconsin winning by three points (79-76). He also has Wisconsin ranked higher (13th vs 24th).
In an attempt to avoid a one-point win that won’t cover the spread, many sharps have drank some juice and played the Badgers on the moneyline (-125). At Circa, Wisconsin is taking in 34% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy wiseguy support in favor of the Badgers winning straight up.
Wisconsin has the better defensive efficiency (24th vs 69th) and free-throw shooting (83% vs 70%). The Badgers also take better care of the ball (18th in turnover percentage vs 207th).
9:40 p.m. ET: UCLA vs Tennessee (-5.5, 131.5)
UCLA (23-10) is the 7-seed and just crushed Utah State 72-47, covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites. On the flip side, Tennessee (28-7) is the 2-seed and just held off Wofford 77-62 but failed to cover as 18.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. Pros seem to think this opener was a bit short and have laid the chalk with the Volunteers, driving Tennessee up -4.5 to -5.5.
At DraftKings, Tennessee is receiving roughly 75% of spread bets and dollars, indicating one-way Pro and Joe support from both wiseguys and the betting public.
Ken Pom has Tennessee winning by five points (67-62). He also has the Vols ranked much higher (5th vs 19th). Despite the hefty price, we’re seeing a heavy bet split in favor of the Vols moneyline (-225). At Circa, Tennessee is receiving only 28% of moneyline bets but an overwhelming 90% of moneyline dollars.
Tennessee has the better offensive efficiency (17th vs 35th) and defensive efficiency (3rd vs 15th). The Vols also have the better offensive rebound percentage (30th vs 91st), free-throw shooting (74% vs 71%) and hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (3rd vs 128th).
