Today a new week begins with a 12-game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
7 p.m. ET: Arkansas State (-2.5, 140.5) vs Troy
This is the Sun Belt championship game.
Arkansas State (24-9) is the 4-seed and just beat South Alabama 74-71 in the semifinals but failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites. On the flip side, Troy (22-10) is the 3-seed and just dismissed James Madison 79-60 in the semifinals, easily covering as 1.5-point favorites.
This line opened with Arkansas State listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Arkansas State move up from -1.5 to -2.5.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the number. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with Arkansas State.
At DraftKings, Arkansas State is receiving 53% of spread bets but 76% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy in their favor. At Circa, Arkansas State is taking in 80% of spread bets and 99% of spread dollars, evidence of heavy one-way support out in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Arkansas State winning by one point (71-70). As a result, many sharps have looked to protect themselves by playing Arkansas State on the moneyline at -140.
Arkansas State has the better offensive efficiency (110th vs 176th), three-point shooting (32% vs 30%) and free-throw shooting (73% vs 72%). The Red Wolves also take better care of the ball (35th in turnovers vs 336th).
These teams split two regular season matchups, with Arkansas State winning 84-78 on the road and then losing 71-70 at home.
7 p.m. ET: Oakland vs Robert Morris (-3.5, 140.5)
This is the Horizon League semifinals.
Oakland (16-17) is the 6-seed and just took down Milwaukee 72-64 in the quarterfinals, winning outright as 7.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, Robert Morris (24-8) is the 1-seed and just crushed Wright State 83-62, easily covering as 6.5-point favorites.
This line opened with Robert Morris listed as low as a 2-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on Robert Morris, steaming the Colonials up from -2 to -3.5. At DraftKings, Robert Morris is receiving 69% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars. At Circa, Robert Morris is taking in 50% of spread bets and 89% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split in favor of the Colonials.
Ken Pom has Robert Morris winning by two points (70-68). With this in mind, many savvy bettors have elected to mitigate some risk and take the Colonials on the moneyline at -160. At DraftKings, Robert Morris is receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy one-way support in favor of Colonials straight up victory.
Robert Morris has the better defensive efficiency (118th vs 212th), three-point shooting (34% vs 31%) and free-throw shooting (72% vs 70%). The Colonials also do a better job of forcing turnovers (70th vs 259th).
Robert Morris is 2-0 against Oakland this season, winning 79-71 and 73-71.
9:30 p.m. ET: Youngstown State vs Cleveland State (-2.5, 138.5)
This is the Horizon League semifinals.
Youngstown State (20-12) is the 4-seed and just held off Purdue Fort Wayne 72-67 in the quarterfinals, covering as 1-point favorites. On the other hand, Cleveland State (21-11) is the 2-seed and just edged Northern Kentucky 68-63 in the quarterfinals, covering as 4.5-point favorites.
This line opened with Cleveland State listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have pounced on the Vikings laying short chalk, driving Cleveland State up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, Cleveland State is taking in 64% of spread bets and 86% of spread dollars, indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has Cleveland State winning by two points (70-68). As a result, sharp have specifically targeted the Vikings on the moneyline at -140. At DraftKings, Cleveland State is taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp discrepancy in favor of a Vikings straight up victory.
Cleveland State has the better offensive efficiency (219th vs 261st), offensive rebound percentage (41st vs 205th) and does a better job of forcing turnovers (8th vs 120th).
Cleveland State is allowing 66 PPG compared to 72 PPG given up by Youngstown State.
These teams split two regular season matchups, with Cleveland State winning 92-75 at home and then losing 91-86 in overtime at Oakland.
