It may not be the NCAA Tournament, but college basketball bettors can still wager on postseason hoops action tonight as we have four NIT and CBI matchups on tap. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of NIT quarterfinal games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
7 p.m. ET: Chattanooga at Bradley (-3.5, 152.5)
Chattanooga (26-9) just brushed aside Dayton 87-72 in the second round, easily winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Bradley (28-8) just took down George Mason 75-67 in the second round, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Bradley listed as high as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Braves, who have a better record and enjoy home court advantage. However, despite receiving 59% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Bradley fall from -4.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Chattanooga plus the points, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
Teams receiving line movement in their favor, like the road dog Mocs here, are 10-7 ATS (59%) in the NIT this postseason and 50-31 ATS (62%) since 2021.
Chattanooga has the better offensive efficiency (50th vs 91st) and free-throw shooting (77% vs 75%). The Mocs take better care of the ball, ranking 45th in turnover percentage compared to 193rd for the Braves.
Sharps also seem to be expecting a higher scoring game, as the total has been steamed up from 149.5 to 152.5. Some books are even hanging 153.5. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 57% of bets but a whopping 90% of dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split.
NIT overs are 16-8 (67%) this postseason.
Both teams boast an effective field goal percentage of 57%. Both teams can also shoot the three, with Chattanooga ranking 38th in three point percentage (37%) and Bradley ranking 2nd (40%).
9 p.m. ET: North Texas at Oklahoma State (-1, 138)
North Texas (26-8) just edged Arkansas State 65-63 in the second round but failed to cover as 4.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Oklahoma State (17-17) just upset SMU 85-83 in the second round, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Oklahoma State listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is happy to back the Cowboys laying short chalk on their home court. However, despite 67% of spread bets playing Oklahoma State, this line has barely budged. Some shops briefly rose up to Cowboys -1.5. But now we are seeing game day buyback on North Texas, as the line is falling back to North Texas +1 or even trending down to a pick’em at some shops.
At DraftKings, North Texas is only taking in 33% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, indicating a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in their favor. The Mean Green also offer heightened “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving one-third of tickets in the most heavily bet game of the night.
Ken Pom has Oklahoma State winning by one point (68-67), which provides actionable value on the Mean Green for those who can shop for the best line and find a book still offering the hook (+1.5).
North Texas has the better offensive efficiency (107th vs 139th) and defensive efficiency (48th vs 84th). North Texas also has the beter effective field goal percentage (52% vs 49%), three-point shooting (36% vs 33%) and free-throw shooting (78% vs 72%).
Wiseguys have also leaned over, raising the total from 137 to 138. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 76% of bets and 78% of dollars, evidence of one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of a higher scoring game.
