Today we wrap up the weekend with a 25-game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
12 p.m. ET: Siena at Sacred Heart (-2.5, 151.5)
Siena (11-14) has dropped two straight and just came up short against Marist 65-64, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Sacred Heart (11-13) just saw their five-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Quinnipiac 99-90 and failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Sacred Heart listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have jumped on Sacred Heart laying short chalk, steaming the Pioneers up from -1.5 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, Sacred Heart is receiving 58% of spread bets but a hefty 80% of spread dollars. At Circa, Sacred Heart is raking in 67% of spread bets and over 90% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home favorite Pioneers.
Ken Pom has Sacred Heart winning by one point (76-75). As a result, pros have looked to gain some added protection by specifically targeting the Pioneers to win straight up on the moneyline at -135.
Sacred Heart has the better offensive efficiency (207th vs 265th), effective field goal percentage (52% vs 49%), offensive rebound percentage (30% vs 28%), three-point shooting (37% vs 33%) and free-throw shooting (73% vs 72%).
Sacred Heart is 6-4 at home. Siena is 3-8 on the road.
12 p.m. ET: Florida Atlantic (-3.5, 160.5) at Temple
Florida Atlantic (14-10) has won four straight and just dismissed Charlotte 87-75 but failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. Conversely, Temple (14-11) has dropped three in a row and just fell to Tulsa 80-74, losing outright as 8.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Florida Atlantic listed as low as a 1.5-point road favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit short and they’ve gotten down hard on Florida Atlantic, driving the road chalk Owls up from -1.5 to -3.5.
At DraftKings, Florida Atlantic is receiving 56% of spread bets but a whopping 95% of spread dollars, indicating ever-so-slight public support but also heavy wiseguy action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has Florida Atlantic winning by one point (83-82). With this in mind, pros looking to follow the sharp Owls move would be wise to play Florida Atlantic on the moneyline (-165) instead of laying the points.
Florida Atlantic has the superior offensive efficiency (67th vs 107th), defensive efficiency (193rd vs 231st) and effective field goal percentage (54% vs 50%). Florida Atlantic is limiting their opponents to 47% in terms of 2-point field goal percentage compared to 51% for Temple.
1 p.m. ET: Michigan at Ohio State (-2.5, 151)
Michigan (19-5, ranked 20th) has won five straight and just took down Purdue 75-73 but failed to cover as 2.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Ohio State (15-10) has won five of their last seven and just crushed Washington 93-69, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is unranked Ohio State favored over a Michigan team with a far better record and ranking?
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 71% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing Michigan plus the points. However, despite the public pounding Michigan we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Ohio State -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the home favorite Buckeyes.
At DraftKings, Ohio State is only receiving 29% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars. At Circa, Ohio State is taking in 44% of spread bets but a whopping 75% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Buckeyes.
Ken Pom has Ohio State winning by two points (76-74). As a result, savvy bettors may prefer a Buckeyes moneyline play (-145) instead of laying the points.
Ohio State has the better three-point shooting (38% vs 36%), free-throw shooting (74% vs 73%) and takes better care of the ball (63rd in turnover percentage compared to 331st for Michigan).
Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 23-13 (64%) straight up this season with a 4% ROI.
