Today is Selection Sunday for the NCAA Tournament. But before we announce the big dance participants we have five more Conference Championship games to get down on. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
12 p.m. ET: Cornell vs Yale (-5.5, 157.5)
This is the Ivy League tournament championship game.
Cornell (18-10) is the 2-seed and just crushed Dartmouth 87-71 in the semifinals, easily covering as 5.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Yale (21-7) is the 1-seed and just edged Princeton 59-57 in the semifinals but failed to cover as 7.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Yale listed as high as a 6.5-point neutral site favorite. At DraftKings, the public is split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even split we’ve seen Yale fall from -6.5 to -5.5.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are grabbing the points with Cornell.
At Circa, Cornell is only receiving 35% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of the Big Red.
Cornell has the better effective field goal percentage (58% vs 55%) and free-throw shooting (76% vs 74%). The Big Red are also a “dog who can score” system match (85 PPG), thereby increasing the likelihood they can keep pace or backdoor cover.
3 p.m. ET: UAB vs Memphis (-3.5, 158)
This is the American Athletic Conference championship game.
UAB (22-11) is the 3-seed and just upset North Texas 66-56 in the semifinals, winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Memphis (28-5) is the 1-seed and just held off Tulane 78-77 in the semifinals but failed to cover as 8.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Memphis listed as a 4.5-point neutral site favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for the top-seeded Tigers and 66% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with Memphis.
However, despite receiving a clear majority of tickets we’ve seen Memphis fall from -4.5 to -3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already pounding the Tigers to begin with? Because respected pro money has come down in favor of UAB plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Blazers.
At DraftKings, UAB is receiving 34% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars. At Circa, UAB is taking in 32% of spread bets but 38% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Blazers.
UAB is also one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as they are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet postseason game.
UAB has the better offensive efficiency (34th vs 71st), offensive rebound percentage (39% vs 35%) and free-throw shooting (76% vs 71%). The Blazers take better care of the ball, ranking 11th in turnover percentage compared to Memphis ranking 308th. UAB also has the better scoring offense (83 PPG vs 80 PPG) and grabs more rebounds per game (40 vs 37).
3:30 p.m. ET: Wisconsin (-3.5, 150.5) vs Michigan
This is the Big Ten tournament championship game.
Wisconsin (26-8) is the 5-seed and just upset Michigan State 77-74 in the semifinals, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. Similarly, Michigan (24-9) is the 3-seed and just upset Maryland 81-80 in the semifinals, winning outright as 4.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. The public isn’t sure whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket split we’ve seen Wisconsin move up from -3 to -3.5. Some shops are even approaching -4.
This signals a sharp “50/50” line move in favor of the Badgers, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public’s indecision.
At DraftKings, Wisconsin is receiving 51% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has Wisconsin winning by four points (78-74). With this in mind, many pros have looked to mitigate some risk by playing the Badgers on the moneyline (-170) instead of laying the points.
At Circa, Wisconsin is receiving 89% of moneyline bets and over 95% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support in favor of a Badgers straight up victory out in Vegas.
Wisconsin has the better offensive efficiency (10th vs 37th), three-point shooting (36% vs 34%) and free-throw shooting (83% vs 73%). The Badgers also do a better job of taking care of the ball and limiting turnovers (17th vs 333rd).
