March Madness continues tonight with another pair of First Four matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
6:40 p.m. ET: Mount St. Mary’s vs American (-2.5, 129)
This East Region matchup features a pair of 16-seeds, with the winner moving on to face 1-seed Duke.
Mount St. Mary’s (22-12) just took down Iona 63-49 to capture the MAAC Tournament, winning outright as 5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, American (22-12) just crushed Navy 74-52 to win the Patriot League Tournament, easily covering as 4.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with American listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Oddsmakers seem to have set the perfect line as the public is split down the middle and the line hasn’t budged off American -2.5. Gameday movement is always critical and especially meaningful in this matchup, seeing as though the line hasn’t moved since open. If we see it creep up to 3, that will indicate late movement breaking toward American. If we see it tumble down to 2, that will signal late action siding with Mount St. Mary’s.
At DraftKings, American is receiving 50% of spread bets and 56% of spread dollars. At Circa, American is taking in 57% of spread bets and 59% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a small “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the chalk.
However, Ken Pom has American winning by one point (66-65). This provides some actionable value on Mount St. Mary’s at the current price (+2.5).
American has the better offensive efficiency (252nd vs 294th) while Mount St. Mary’s has the better defensive efficiency (176th vs 206th).
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 132.5 to 129.5. At DraftKings, the under is taking in 38% of bets but 55% of dollars, a notable sharp contrarian bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Both of these teams rank near the bottom in terms of tempo, with Mount St Mary’s ranking 171st in possessions per game and American raking 349th.
9:10 p.m. ET: Xavier (-3, 151.5) vs Texas
This Midwest Region showdown features a pair of 11-seeds, with the winner moving on to face 6-seed Illinois.
Xavier (21-11) just came up short against Marquette 89-87 in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals but managed to cover as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Texas (19-15) just fell to Tennessee 83-72 in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, failing to cover as 9.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Xavier listed as a 2-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks the wrong team might be favored and 55% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with Texas. However, despite Texas receiving a majority of tickets we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Xavier -2 to -3. Some shops are even up to -3.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Xavier, as the line has moved in their direction despite the Musketeers being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, Xavier is receiving 45% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars. At Circa, Xavier is taking in 52% of spread bets and 59% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Musketeers.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also mitigate some risk might prefer a Xavier moneyline play at -150. At Circa, the Musketeers are receiving 59% of moneyline bets and a whopping 83% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers banking on a Xavier straight up victory.
Xavier has the better defensive efficiency (44th vs 56th), three-point shooting (39% vs 36%) and free-throw percentage (79% vs 75%).
While the betting market appears bullish on Xavier, Ken Pom actually has Texas winning this game by one point (76-75). This provides actionable value on Longhorns, especially if you can shop around for a hook (+3.5).
Wiseguys have also leaned over, raising the total from 150 to 151.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 66% of bets and 83% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 75% of bets and 93% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a higher scoring game.
Both teams ranking top 50 in offensive efficiency (Xavier 51st and Texas 37th) and top 95 in effective field goal percentage (Xavier 55th and Texas 95th). Xavier also plays at a quicker pace, ranking 74th in possessions per game.
