The first round of March Madness begins today with sixteen NCAA Tournament games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
12:15 p.m. ET: Creighton vs Louisville (-3, 145.5)
Creighton (24-10) is the 9-seed and just got rolled by St. John’s 82-66 in the Big East Tournament final, failing to cover as 6.5-point neutral site dogs. Similarly, Louisville (27-7) is the 8-seed and just fell to Duke 73-62 in the ACC Tournament final, failing to cover as 6.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Louisville listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have quietly leaned toward laying the chalk, as Louisville has moved up from -2.5 to -3. Some shops are even inching up toward -3.5. We’ve never seen the line fall to -2. Essentially, all movement and liability is on the side of the Cardinals.
At DraftKings, Louisville is receiving 61% of spread bets and 68% of spread dollars. At Circa, Louisville is taking in 53% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Cardinals.
Ken Pom has Louisville winning by three points (75-72). He also has the Cardinals ranked higher (23rd vs 36th). For those looking to mitigate some risk and avoid a possible push, Louisville might be worth a look on the moneyline (-150) instead of laying the points.
Louisville has the better offensive efficiency (29th vs 35th), defensive efficiency (21st vs 42nd), offensive rebound percentage (32% vs 27%) and free throw shooting (74% vs 73%). The Cardinals also take better care of the ball (136th in turnovers vs 246th) and force more turnovers on defense (93rd vs 361st).
Louisville will also enjoy a friendly “home” crowd as this game will be played at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky, which is only about an hour and 15 minutes away from the Cardinals campus.
4:05 p.m. ET: VCU vs BYU (-2.5, 147.5)
VCU (28-6) is the 11-seed and just outlasted George Mason 68-63 to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament but failed to cover as 7.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, BYU (24-9) is the 6-seed and just got crushed by Houston 74-54 in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals, failing to cover as 6.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with BYU listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the points with BYU, who is the higher seeded team. However, despite receiving 60% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve actually seen BYU fall from -3.5 to -2.5. Some shops are even inching down to -2.
This signals sharp reverse line movement on VCU plus the points, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.
VCU has notable contrarian value as the Rams are only taking in 40% of spread bets and DraftKings and 39% of spread bets at Circa.
Ken Pom has BYU winning by one point (74-73), which provides actionable value on VCU at the current price (+2.5).
VCU has the better defensive efficiency (24th vs 69th), offensive rebound percentage (37% vs 33%) and free-throw percentage (75% vs 71%). The Rams also rank 1st in the country at limiting their opponents’ effective field goal percentage (44%). Meanwhile, BYU ranks 165th (51%).
7:10 p.m. ET: Arkansas vs Kansas (-5, 145.5)
Arkansas (20-13) is the 10-seed and just fell to Ole Miss 83-80 in the second round of the SEC Tournament but managed to cover as 4.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Kansas (21-12) is the 7-seed and just came up short against Arizona 88-77 in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals, failing to cover as 3.5-point neutral site dogs.
This line opened with Kansas listed as a 5-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is way too high and 76% of spread bets at DraftKings are grabbing the points with Arkansas. However, despite this lopsided betting in favor of the Razorbacks we’ve seen the Jayhawks remain stagnant at -5. Some shops have even crept up to Kansas -5.5.
Normally, if a team is getting such heavy support you would see the line move in their favor. The fact that this line hasn’t budged and even trended up to -5.5 signals a sharp “fade the trendy dog” line freeze and some reverse line movement in favor of Kansas laying the points.
Kansas is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Jayhawks are only receiving 24% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet primetime matchup. At Circa, Kansas is only taking in 30% of spread bets but a whopping 65% of spread dollars at Circa, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers fading the trendy dog Razorbacks and instead backing the unpopular chalk Jayhawks.
Kansas has the better offensive efficiency (49th vs 73rd), defensive efficiency (11th vs 18th), offensive rebound percentage (30% vs 28%) and three-point shooting (35% vs 33%).
