Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball on tap with 53-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
8:30 p.m. ET: Southeast Missouri State at SIU Edwardsville (-3.5, 140.5)
Southeast Missouri State (19-10) has won nine straight and just brushed aside Lindenwood 74-58, easily covering as 9.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, SIU Edwardsville (19-10) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Southern Indiana 82-68 and losing outright as 4.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with SIU Edwardsville listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the home chalk, steaming SIU Edwardsville up from -1.5 to -3.5. At DraftKings, SIU Edwardsville is receiving 63% of spread bets and a whopping 92% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has SIU Edwardsville winning by one point (69-68). With this in mind, many pros have paid a few extra cents in juice and elected to take the Cougars on the moneyline at -170. At DraftKings, SIU Edwardsville is taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, another sharp discrepancy in favor of the Cougars earning a straight up win on their home court.
SIU Edwardsville has the better offensive rebound percentage (31% vs 24%) and limits their opponents to a better two-point field goal percentage (46% vs 49%). SIU Edwardsville averages 38 rebounds per game compared to 33 rebounds per game for Southeast Missouri State.
SIU Edwardsville is 11-2 at home this season. This is also a revenge play for the Cougars, who lost to the Redhawks 80-64 on the road back in late December.
9 p.m. ET: Middle Tennessee State at New Mexico State (-1.5, 137.5)
Middle Tennessee State (18-9) has won two of their last three and just held off Sam Houston 74-70 but failed to cover as 5-point home favorites. Similarly, New Mexico State (15-12) has won three straight and just took down Kennesaw State 60-49, winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with New Mexico State listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have quietly leaned toward the home chalk, as New Mexico State is being juiced up -1.5 (-115) and some books have crept up to New Mexico State -2. At DraftKings, New Mexico State is taking in 70% of spread bets and 76% of spread dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Ken Pom has New Mexico State winning by two points (70-68). As a result, value driven bettors may prefer an Aggies moneyline play (-125) instead of laying the points. At DraftKings, New Mexico State is receiving 69% of moneyline bets and 79% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support in favor of a straight up win for the home team.
New Mexico State has the better defensive efficiency (72nd vs 157th) and limits their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (47% vs 49%). The Aggies are 5th-best in the country at defending the three pointer. The Blue Raiders rank 108th.
10 p.m. ET: Pepperdine at Portland (-3.5, 157.5)
Pepperdine (10-19) has dropped six of their last seven and just fell to Loyola Marymount 93-82, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Portland (11-18) has won three of their last four and just took down Pacific 81-73, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Portland listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have pounced on the home chalk, steaming Portland up from -1.5 to -3.5. This movement is especially notable considering the fact that this is one of least heavily bet games of the night. As a result, the public is largely overlooking this matchup while pros have taken a keen interest and position.
At DraftKings, Portland is receiving 56% of spread bets and 64% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
Sharps have also looked to mitigate some risk by playing the Pilots on the moneyline at -175. At DraftKings, Portland is taking in 80% of moneyline bets but a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of wiseguys playing Portland to earn a straight up win on their home court.
Portland has the far better three-throw shooting (78% vs 71%), which could prove critical in a close game.
Portland is 8-7 at home this season. Pepperdine is 2-10 on the road.
