Today we have a loaded College Basketball slate on tap with nearly 60 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
6:30 p.m. ET: Ohio State at Penn State (-3.5, 149.5)
Ohio State (12-8) has won two in a row and just took down Iowa 82-65, covering as 7-point home favorites. On the other hand, Penn State (13-8) has dropped six of their last seven games and just came up short against Michigan 76-72 but managed to cover as 8.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Penn State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Penn State creep up from -2.5 to -3.5. This signals smart money laying the points with the home favorite. At DraftKings, Penn State is taking in 54% of spread bets but a hefty 87% of spread dollars. At Circa, Penn State is receiving 54% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Nittany Lions.
Ken Pom has Penn State winning by one point (76-75). As a result, those looking to play the sharp Nittany Lions move but also looking to mitigate risk in the event of a close game could elect to play Penn State on the moneyline at -175. At DraftKings, Penn State is taking in 51% of moneyline bets and 60% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Penn State is receiving 50% of moneyline bets but over 90% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of wiseguys playing the Nittany Lions to win straight up.
Penn State has the better offensive rebound percentage (31% vs 29%) and free-throw shooting (76% vs 73%). The Nittany Lions also have buy-low value as a short home favorite on a losing skid against a sell-high dog on a winning streak. Penn State is 10-2 at home. Ohio State is 2-3 on the road. Big Ten home favorites are 46-17 (73%) straight up in conference play this season.
6:30 p.m. ET: Wright State at Youngstown State (-2, 147.5)
Wright State (11-11) has won two of their last three and just beat Detroit 67-50, covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Youngstown State (13-9) has also won two of their last three and just crushed Penn State-Shenango 112-63.
This line opened with Youngstown State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on Youngstown State laying short chalk, steaming the Penguins up from -1.5 to -2. Some shops have even reached -2.5. We haven’t seen any buyback on Wright State. At DraftKings, Youngstown State is receiving 73% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars, indicating one-way Pro and Joe support.
Ken Pom has Youngstown State winning by one point (72-71). With this in mind, wiseguys have focused on Youngstown State to win straight up (-135) instead of laying the points. At DraftKings, Youngstown State is taking in 77% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Youngstown State has the far better defensive efficiency (111th vs 261st) and superior free-throw percentage (72% vs 70%). Youngstown State ranks 45th in effective field goal percentage defense while Wright State ranks 221st. Youngstown State is 6-3 at home. Wright State is 3-6 on the road. Horizon League home favorites are 24-11 (69%) straight up in conference play this season.
9:30 p.m. ET: Cal Poly at Cal State Bakersfield (-4, 160)
Cal Poly (7-14) just snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 78-69 win over Long Beach State, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Cal State Bakersfield (10-11) has rotated wins and losses over their last five games and just came up short against UC Riverside 83-79, losing outright as 1-point home favorites.
This line opened with Cal State Bakersfield listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on Cal State Bakersfield, steaming the Roadrunners up from -2.5 to -4. At DraftKings, Cal State Bakersfield is receiving 80% of spread bets and 87% of spread dollars. At Circa, Cal State Bakersfield is taking in 67% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet split in favor of the Roadrunners at home.
Ken Pom has Cal State Bakersfield winning by four points (81-77). Those looking to follow the sharp move but also protect themselves in what might be a close game could instead elect to play the Roadrunners on the moneyline (-190). At DraftKings, the Roadrunners are taking in 90% of moneyline bets and 98% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy smart money banking on the home team to earn a victory.
Cal State Bakersfield has the better offensive efficiency (186th vs 203rd) and defensive efficiency (275th vs 298th). The Roadrunners also have the better offensive rebound percentage (35% vs 29%) and three-point shooting (39% vs 34%). Cal State Bakersfield is 7-2 at home. Cal Poly is 2-10 on the road. Big West home favorites are 22-12 (65%) straight up in conference play this season.
