Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball action on tap with 32-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
6:30 p.m. ET: Jacksonville at Florida Gulf Coast (-3.5, 140.5)
Jacksonville (16-10) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to North Alabama 92-79 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Florida Gulf Coast (14-13) has dropped three of their last four and just lost to Lipscomb 82-68, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Florida Gulf Coast listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the home chalk, steaming Florida Gulf Coast up from -2.5 to -3.5. This is also an added/extra game, which means the public can barely find this matchup on their betting menu. However, based on the obscure sharp line move we can deduce that pros have specifically targeted the matchup and sided with the home favorite Eagles.
At DraftKings, Florida Gulf Coast is receiving 58% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor. Ken Pom has the Eagles winning by two points (71-69). For this season, sharps may prefer to protect themselves and play the Eagles on the moneyline (-165) instead of laying the points.
Florida Gulf Coast has the better offensive efficiency (149th vs 240th), effective field goal percentage (54% vs 51%) and takes better care of the ball (105th in turnovers compared to 322nd for Jacksonville). The Eagles are also better at limiting offensive rebounds to their opponents (58th vs 225th).
8:30 p.m. ET: Tennessee State at Tennessee Martin (-2.5, 151.5)
Tennessee State (13-14) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, falling to SIU Edwardsville 84-72 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Tennessee Martin (12-15) has won three straight and just edged Eastern Illinois 72-68, covering as 2.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Tennessee Martin listed as a 2-point home favorite. Sharps have quietly sided with the home team, driving Tennessee Martin up from -2 to -2.5. Some shops are even up to -3. This movement is especially notable because this is one of the smallest, least heavily bet game of the night. As a result, we can infer that the steam was a result of sharp money taking a position, not the betting public.
At DraftKings, Tennessee Martin is receiving 55% of spread bets but a hefty 78% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Tennessee Martin winning by one point (76-75). With this in mind, savvy wiseguys may prefer to pay a few more cents in juice and take the Skyhawks on the moneyline at -150.
Tennessee Martin has the better free-throw percentage (71% vs 68%) and takes better care of the ball, ranking 319th in turnovers compared to 352nd for Tennessee State. The Skyhawks are also more proficient at forcing turnovers (87th vs 162nd).
Tennessee Martin in 7-3 at home. Tennessee State is 3-9 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Kansas at BYU (-3, 148.5)
Kansas (17-8, ranked 23rd) has rotated wins and losses over their last seven games and just fell to Utah 74-67, losing outright as 6.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, BYU (17-8) has won two in a row and just took down Kansas State 80-65, covering as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with BYU listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 68% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with the Jayhawks, who are the bigger school with the better ranking. However, despite two-thirds of tickets backing Kansas we’ve actually seen this line move further toward BYU -1.5 to -3. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Cougars at home.
At DraftKings, BYU is only receiving 32% of spread bets but a whopping 80% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. In an attempt to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game, pros have specifically targeted BYU on the moneyline (-155). At DraftKings, the Cougars are taking in 31% of moneyline bets but 57% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers playing BYU to earn a straight up win on their home court.
BYU has the better offensive efficiency (10th vs 74th), offensive rebound percentage (34% vs 30%) and three-point shooting (37% vs 34%).
BYU is 12-2 at home. Kansas is 3-6 on the road.
