Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball on tap with 44-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
6 p.m. ET: Coastal Carolina vs Southern Miss (-3.5, 140.5)
This is the first round of the Sun Belt tournament. Coastal Carolina (10-21) is the 13-seed and has rotated wins and losses over their last four games. The Chanticleers just fell to Old Dominion 61-59, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. On the other hand, Southern Miss (10-21) is the 12-seed and has dropped eight straight games. The Golden Eagles just lost to Troy 70-58, failing to cover as 9.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Southern Miss listed as low as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. The public sees two bad teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen Southern Miss move up from -1.5 to -3.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that respected sharp action has sided with Southern Miss.
At DraftKings, Southern Miss is receiving 47% of spread bets but a hefty 72% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Ken Pom has Southern Miss winning by three points (72-69). With this in mind, many wiseguys have elected to mitigate some risk by playing the Golden Eagles on the moneyline at -160. At Circa, Southern Miss is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars, indicating one-way support in favor of a straight up Southern Miss victory.
Southern Miss has the superior defensive efficiency (208th vs 331st) and is better at forcing turnovers (277th vs 364th). Southern Miss also has the better scoring offense (72 PPG vs 67 PPG).
The Golden Eagles have fishy buy-low value as a short favorite on a prolonged losing streak. This is also a revenge play for Southern Miss, who lost to Coastal Carolina 87-78 two weeks ago.
7 p.m. ET: Lehigh vs Loyola Maryland (-3, 139.5)
This is the first round of the Patriot League tournament. Lehigh (11-18) is the 9-seed and just snapped a three-game losing skid by beating Army 89-67 and winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Loyola Maryland (11-18) is the 8-seed and has lost six of their last seven. The Greyhounds just fell to Navy 81-68, failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Loyola Maryland listed as a 1-point home favorite. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Greyhounds, steaming Loyola Maryland up from -1 to -3. This movement is especially notable considering the fact this is a tiny added/extra game. In other words, the public is largely overlooking this matchup but pros have taken a keen interest and sided with the home chalk.
At DraftKings, Loyola Maryland is receiving 66% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars. At Circa, Loyola Maryland is taking in 75% of spread bets but a whopping 97% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Greyhounds.
Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added protection in the event of a close game may prefer a Loyola Maryland moneyline play at -155.
Loyola Maryland has the better offensive rebound percentage (29% vs 21%) and is better at forcing turnovers (194th vs 249th). The Greyhounds average 34 rebounds per game compared to 32 rebounds per game for the Mountain Hawks.
Loyola Maryland is 6-7 at home this season. Lehigh is 3-13 on the road.
8 p.m. ET: Temple at Tulsa (-2.5, 144.5)
Temple (15-14) just snapped a six-game losing streak with a 73-71 win over South Florida, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, Tulsa (11-18) has dropped three straight and just came up short against Tulane 79-77 but managed to cover as 3.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Tulsa listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this even bet split we’ve seen Tulsa creep up from -1 to -2.5. Once again, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have no reason to adjust the number. So, based on the line move we can infer that pro money has sided with Tulsa at home.
Many wiseguys have looked to protect themselves by playing Tulsa on the moneyline at -140. At DraftKings, Tulsa is taking in 48% of moneyline bets but 55% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Tulsa is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of a straight up Tulsa victory on their home court.
Tulsa has the better defensive efficiency (240th vs 245th) and does a better job at limiting their opponents’ effective field goal percentage (134th vs 169th). Tulsa ranks 236th in offensive rebounds allowed compared to 299th for Temple.
Tulsa is 8-8 at home this season. Temple is 2-9 on the road. This is a fishy buy-low play on Tulsa, as they are a below .500 team on a losing streak favored over an above .500 team off a win. Tonight is Senior Night for Tulsa, who may be extra motivated as they celebrate their top two scorers Dwon Odom (13.3 PPG) and Keaston Willis (12.9 PPG).
