College basketball best bets and projections
One could argue that there is significantly more star power in women’s college basketball than there is on the men’s side. There are reasons for that – one and done men being the most prominent, I think. Nonetheless, the star power of women’s basketball will be on full display Monday night as the defending champion LSU Tigers take on superstar and presumptive #1 pick, Caitlin Clark, and her Iowa Hawkeyes team.
Later, we’ll see freshman sensation JuJu Watkins and USC go to battle with Paige Bueckers and powerhouse UConn with a spot in the Final Four on the line. The latter game could easily be the marquee matchup on a normal night, but is perceived (at least by some) as the undercard for the heavyweight fight that will be the 2023 national championship game rematch.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for Monday, April 1st:
LSU vs. Iowa
What does my T Shoe Index project will happen in these games? Well, in the LSU/Iowa game, where Iowa is currently a 1.5-point favorite with an O/U of 168.5, TSI projects LSU as a short, one-point favorite, with a projected total of 167.5. High scoring and down to the wire is what it sounds like this matchup is shaping up to be. Wouldn’t have it any other way between these teams. TSI has both of these teams power rated in the top 5 nationally, with LSU #3 and Iowa #5.
USC vs. UConn
In the other Elite Eight matchup Monday night, the Huskies are currently 3.5-point favorites with an O/U of 135.5; whereas, TSI projects UConn as a 12-point winner, with a total of 141.5. UConn currently sits at #2 in the TSI ratings, while USC is merely 17th, despite being the #1 seed in the region.
Regardless of the outcomes of these games, getting to see these teams and these stars square off against one another is a win for all fans of the sport.
