If we learned anything from Week 0 in college football, it is that we know nothing.
The market moves went 1-3 ATS last Saturday, and the lowly opponents were extremely feisty in a big weekend for underdogs. That is why I like to stick to what I think I know when a college football season begins.
In this week’s column each game involves a Mountain West program. I used to cover the Mountain West, and I previewed the conference for our College Football Betting Guide. It is a league I believe I know well. So, before I get my eyes on other teams around the country, I’ll stick to the Mountain West teams and try to find value in their contests to start the season.
College Football Best Bets Week 1
Wyoming Cowboys @ Arizona State Sun Devils
Wyoming is one of two bets I made to win the Mountain West in the offseason. The Cowboys bring back seven starters from a defense which finished 17th in opponent EPA on early downs and 46th overall last season. This unit should be the backbone of this team, and it should be able to hold its own against Arizona State’s offense which finished 130th in the country in 2023.
It is not great that Wyoming lost running back Harrison Waylee to a knee injury already, but he was one of the three leading rushers back from last season. This offensive line remains mostly intact as well, and they have quarterback Evan Svoboda back under center. The Cowboys should be a strong rushing attack once again this season, and I believe they can run the ball successfully against a weak Sun Devil front.
This play is on the number. I believe Wyoming is undervalued, thus my bet on it to win the Mountain West. Even at home, a touchdown does not separate Arizona State from this team. I’m happy to grab 6.5 and feel like a small play on the moneyline provides some value as well.
Play: Wyoming (+6.5)
Colorado State Rams @ Texas Longhorns
There has been plenty of skepticism surrounding Texas this season. It’s win total was bet down at almost every shop, and its odds to win the national championship have drifted out +850 at DraftKings. That has also seemingly translated to this number on Saturday.
Yes, the Longhorns lost running backs CJ Baxter and Christian Clark, but those absences alone are not worth the five-point drop in this line that we have seen. Perhaps there are those who believe in Colorado State, but I am not one of those people.
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is an average quarterback who puts the ball in danger. Last season, Fowler-Nicolosi committed a turnover-worthy play on 5.0% of his pass attempts last season. He was tied for 10th among qualified Mountain West quarterbacks in PFF passing grade. I do not expect him to take care of the football on the road against an opponent the level of Texas.
The Longhorns also have plenty of motivation to keep the foot on the pedal here. Arch Manning is the unquestioned backup behind Quinn Ewers this season. If this gets lopsided, Steve Sarkisian will have plenty of reason to give Manning meaningful snaps after Ewers’ day is done.
Play: Texas (-31.5)
UNLV Rebels @ Houston Cougars
UNLV has a new quarterback room this season, and the team is playing coy by listing all three players – Hajj-Malik Williams, Matthew Sluka and Cam Friel – as co-starters. It is my belief that Williams is the winner of the job, but regardless of who is behind center, this team will be able to score.
Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s “Go-Go” scheme is extremely explosive. Ricky White is one of the best receivers in the country. Both Williams and Sluka are good athletes who give the Rebels a running threat at quarterback they did not have last season when they finished 23rd in EPA per play. UNLV should find offensive success against Houston, which is rebuilding a defense that finished 120th in the country in opponent EPA last season.
Meanwhile, the Cougars should be able to score against the Rebels. UNLV had a massive problem with giving up big plays downfield in 2023. Barry Odom brought in some transfers from Arkansas and Texas to shore up the defensive backfield, but pieces remain from last season. The Rebels were 73rd in opponent EPA per dropback last season, and there should not be a massive leap upward from that mark this season.
Play: OVER 54.5
