The margins are getting tighter at the windows, but there is still plenty of line movement taking place on Sundays when Circa Sports opens its menu.
Take one of the biggest line moves of the weekend: Old Dominion. The Monarchs opened catching three points, but currently sit as 2.5-point favorites with no real notable injury news to explain the move.
This week, we dive into five notable line moves from the Sunday that was. There are some that can be explained to an extent – like a quarterback injury in Lubbock – and others that seem to be just pure downgrades or upgrades by the market.
Week 10 College Football Odds Report
Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State Mountaineers
Open: APP (-3, 61.5) | Current: ODU (-2.5, 60)
At this time of year it is rare to see a number move as much as this one did. Circa Sports opened Appalachian State as a field goal favorite on Sunday, but this was hammered hard in the other direction. Old Dominion is now -2.5 on the road at most shops. The Monarchs have been dominant against conference opponents thus far. They are 3-1 ATS with a +13.9 cover margin. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers have struggled and enter this game 1-2-1 ATS with a -13.4 cover margin against Sun Belt opponents.
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
Open: BU (-2, 69.5) | Current: BU (-3.5, 65)
Baylor has won consecutive games for the first time since 2022 and the market has seemingly upgraded the Bears as a result. One could argue this is a further downgrade of TCU as well. The Horned Frogs won but did not cover against the Red Raiders on Saturday to fall to 2-6 ATS with a -5.1 spread differential. TCU is one of the worst cover teams in the country, so the market pushed this through a key number. Interestingly, the total was bet down 4.5 points to 65 at Circa Sports when it opened. Five straight Baylor games have gone over the total and TCU is 5-3 to the over as well. It would seem the market took a stand on a high number of 69.5 at the open.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Iowa State Cyclones
Open: ISU (-12, 53.5) | Current: ISU (-14.5, 57)
Texas Tech looked like it was setting up a game-winning field goal on Saturday when quarterback Will Hammond fumbled the ball deep inside TCU territory. Not only is it a crushing loss for the Red Raiders, but quarterback Behren Morton was injured in the game and is unlikely to start here. Iowa State is coming off of a bye and is 5-2 ATS on the season. It is not surprising to see the market jump on the Cyclones in this spot and push the line over a key number. The total is somewhat surprising considering the status of Morton. This opened at 53.5 at Circa Sports on Sunday and was immediately bet up. If Texas Tech is starting a freshman quarterback on the road will it be able to hold up its end of the bargain to get this number over?
UCLA Bruins at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Open: NEB (-9, 45.5) | Current: NEB (-7.5, 41.5)
Both the underdog and the under saw support at Circa Sports over the weekend in this contest. This would seem like a potential letdown for Nebraska which had a chance to pull the upset over Ohio State. Not only did the Cornhuskers have the ball on the final drive down by only four points, but it was also turned away on a pivotal fourth down at the goalline in the third quarter. This is a spot the market usually fades, and that is likely what we’re seeing here with the line move. We also saw this total sink like a stone after Circa Sports opened it at 45.5 on Sunday. It is now as low as 40.5 so we have yet to hit the floor by market standards.
Wyoming Cowboys at New Mexico Lobos
Open: NM (-7, 55.5) | Current: NM (-7.5, 59)
The market continues to hammer these New Mexico totals over when the opener is hung on Sunday. Circa Sports posted 55.5 and that was bet up 60.5 but we saw some buyback on Monday morning. The consensus number is now 59 across the board. The Lobos are one of the best over teams in the country at 6-2 and their games have gone over by 12.8 points per game. The Cowboys are 5-3 to the over this season. The high-powered offense for New Mexico was held to just six points over the weekend, but it would be surprising to see Wyoming – 122nd in opponent EPA per play – contain this unit on Saturday.
