We have arrived at the biggest week of college football. Many bettors had this week circled due to the sheer volume of contests between top-ranked programs. The slate looks as good as expected, but with big games come tight lines.
This week, there was not as much dramatic movement from the opening lines as we have seen in weeks past. As you will see, there were some, but the line moves of three or more points were few and far between.
Perhaps the market is getting tighter. Given how many high-profile games there are, it makes sense that the lines would be more firm. These teams are highly covered, and information that would shape lines is readily available.
Regardless, we do have some interesting line moves to discuss. Including, a market downgrade on one of the programs participating in the biggest game of the week.
College Football Week 7 Odds Report
Vanderbilt Commodores at Kentucky Wildcats
Open: UK (-10, 42.5) | Current: UK (-14, 45.5)
Vanderbilt might have shocked the nation with the win over Alabama over the weekend, but the Commodores have been covering numbers like this all season. Vanderbilt is now 4-1 ATS on the season with a +14.4 point spread differential. However, this is the ultimate letdown spot. The goal posts made a trip through downtown Nashville and the celebration from the team was akin to a team winning a national championship. It is hardly a surprise to see the market jump all over Kentucky here. The Wildcats have been a good cover team in their own right (4-1 ATS) and sixth in defensive EPA per play.
Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Open: CLEM (-21, 55.5) | Current: CLEM (-20.5, 61.5)
Since losing to Georgia in the opening week Clemson has quietly taken care of business. The Tigers are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS and they have scored 40 or more points in three of the four games. Clemson now gets to face Wake Forest, a team which ranks 111th in opponent EPA per play. The Tigers have clawed their way up to 39th in EPA metrics on offense. It seems like a match made in heaven for Clemson to continue this dominant run. That is likely why we have seen this total jump from 55.5 to 61.5 on the screen. The Demon Deacons’ defense has been the biggest reason the team is 4-1 to the over, and the market seems to believe that trend will continue this weekend.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Oregon Ducks
Open: OSU (-4, 51.5) | Current: OSU (-4, 53.5)
The perception surrounding both Ohio State and Oregon seem to be on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Buckeyes won and covered against the Hawkeyes on Saturday to improve to 3-2 ATS. At no point this season has Ohio State found itself in any real danger. For Oregon, that is not the case. The Ducks barely got by Idaho and Boise State earlier in the season and they come into this game 1-4 ATS with a -8.2 spread differential. They have failed to meet market expectations and as a result the market has downgraded the Ducks. Oregon was just a two-point underdog on the DraftKings lookahead line, but now the number has moved through the key number. Bettors will have to decide if what they have seen from the Ducks is worth moving the line through a field goal.
Washington Huskies at Iowa Hawkeyes
Open: IOWA (-1, 38.5) | Current: IOWA (-3, 40.5)
Washington was an extremely sharp play last week. The Huskies took care of business in a 27-17 win over the Wolverines. After a win like that, situational handicappers likely have Washington slated for a letdown spot. That showed in the market movement on Sunday, as Circa Sports opened Iowa as one-point favorite. Those that shape the market pushed this number easily to a three-point spread, but I have my questions about the Hawkeyes. Cade McNamara was terrible in the loss to Ohio State. He threw for just 98 yards and an interception and led Iowa’s offense to just seven points. The team is now 119th in EPA per dropback on the season. Situationally, it makes sense to back the Hawkeyes here, but can you trust the offense to do its part to cover the number as a favorite?
Boise State Broncos at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Open: BSU (-18, 59.5) | Current: BSU (-21, 61)
Boise State’s offense has been an absolute machine and the betting market seemingly believes in the Broncos. Boise State leads the country in scoring (49.3) and it is seventh in the country in EPA per play. Meanwhile, Hawaii has been disappointing to this point. The Rainbow Warriors are 2-3 ATS on the season with wins over Delaware State and Northern Iowa. Timmy Chang’s squad is 120th in net EPA and 82nd against the run. It seems unlikely that Hawaii will be able to stop Ashton Jeanty, the new Heisman favorite. Bettors pushed this line up a full field goal up to -21 and the market is showing no resistance as of Monday.
