College Football Week 7 Predictions from the T Shoe Index:
I grew up in a small Ohio town five minutes away from Huntington, West Virginia, and every time you drive over the bridge above the Ohio River, there’s a giant sign that says, “Welcome to West Virginia: Wild and Wonderful.” I think of that sign every time there’s a college football weekend like the one we just had, because college football is wild and wonderful. I thought Alabama may have been in a letdown spot against Vanderbilt after beating Georgia the week before, but I thought that translated to them winning by 17 instead of 24, not losing outright to “the worst home field advantage in the SEC,” according to Nick Saban. We also saw Tennessee go down to Arkansas, Miami flirt with a loss at Cal, and USC lose a second game in the Midwest the season. With some monstrous games on the slate this weekend, let’s take a look at the early lines compared to my T Shoe Index and see where we can get some early value to add to the card:
USC (+5.5) vs. Penn State
Speaking of USC, I love the spot for them here against Penn State. For one, a good team coming off a loss is always attractive because you’re probably getting a bit of a discount on the price, but also, you know they’re going to be fully locked in and prepared for this game, as their playoff hopes are not dead and a win against #4 Penn State could be just what the doctor ordered. TSI projects USC as a 1.5-point home favorite here, and coupling that with the spot and the fact that Penn State’s travel is just one more inconvenience they have to deal with due to there not being a real airport in State College, PA. I have USC #9 on offense and defense, while Penn State is #19 on offense and #10 on defense.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: USC +5.5 (Play to +3.5)
UCLA (+5.5; 40) vs. Minnesota
How about the other side of the USC loss last week? Minnesota got a season-defining win against the Trojans at home but now have to turn around and travel across the country to take on a bad and hungry UCLA team who probably sees a realistic opportunity to get a conference win at home in this spot. TSI projects Minnesota by 2.5, and I would not trust PJ Fleck’s team as a road favorite as far as I can throw them, especially traveling this far after a huge win. Love the spot for UCLA here, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do indeed get their first Big Ten win in the Rose Bowl.
College Football Week 7 Best Bet: UCLA +5.5 (Play to +3.5)
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