The College Football season rolls on with over 100 games on tap for Week 3. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for several Saturday games using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
LSU (-7, 50.5) at South Carolina
LSU (1-1, ranked 16th) just got their first win of the season last week, crushing Nicholls 44-21 but failing to cover as 46.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, South Carolina (2-0) remained unbeaten by shocking down Kentucky 31-6 as 9.5-point road dogs. This line opened with LSU listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with LSU, who is the higher ranked team and more popular program. However, despite receiving 72% of spread bets we’ve seen LSU fall from -7.5 to -7. This signals smart money jumping on South Carolina plus the points (specifically at +7.5), as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. South Carolina has buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. The Gamecocks also have value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 52 to 50.5 despite 74% of bets taking the over. Keep an eye on the weather here, as the early forecast calls for high 70s, partly cloudy skies and 10 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.
West Virginia (-2.5, 60.5) at Pittsburgh
West Virginia (1-1) just got their first win of the season last week, crushing Albany 49-14 but failing to cover as 38.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (2-0) remained undefeated by upsetting Cincinnati 28-27 as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with West Virginia listed as high as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Mountaineers, with 76% of spread bets laying the points with West Virginia. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen West Virginia fall from -4.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Pittsburgh, with pros grabbing the Panthers plus the points at home. Pittsburgh is only receiving 24% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet afternoon games, giving the Panthers notable contrarian value. Those looking to bet against the public and back Pittsburgh would be wise to hold out for a +3. Several shops are juicing up West Virginia -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible rise back up to the key number of 3. Wiseguys have also hit the over, raising the total from 59.5 to 60.5. This movement is notable because 70% of bets are taking the under, yet the total rise. The over is receiving 30% of bets but 64% of dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian over split.
Washington State vs Washington (-4.5, 56)
This in-state rivalry game will be played at Lumen Field, home of the Seattle Seahawks. Washington State (2-0) just brushed aside Texas Tech 37-16 last week, easily winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Similarly, Washington (2-0) just beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but failed to cover as 25-point home favorites. This line opened with Washington listed as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite. Some shops posted an early opener of Washington -8. Regardless of the opener, all smart money has come down on Washington State plus the points, dropping the Cougars down to +4.5. This movement is especially notable because the public is absolutely hammering the Huskies. However, despite Washington receiving 81% of spread bets we’ve seen the line move toward Washington State. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cash on Washington when they’re already backing the Huskies to begin with? Because pros have sided with unpopular Washington State as a neutral site dog in a rivalry game. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has ticked up from 55 to 56. The over is receiving 59% of bets and 66% of dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action.
Notre Dame (-10.5, 46) at Purdue
Notre Dame (1-1, ranked 18th) just suffered the biggest upset loss of the early season last week, falling to Northern Illinois 16-14 as 28-point home favorites. On the other hand, Purdue (1-0) just destroyed Indiana State 49-0, easily covering as 35-point home favorites. This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a 12.5-point road favorite. The public is still leaning toward laying the points with Notre Dame despite their horrific loss last week. However, despite receiving 58% of spread bets we’ve seen Notre Dame fall from -12.5 to -10.5. Some shops are even inching down to -10. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Purdue, as the line is moving in their direction despite receiving only 42% of spread bets. Purdue has buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. The Boilermakers have correlative betting value as a double-digit dog in a relatively low total game (46), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the bigger number. Purdue enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage as well, as the Boilermakers were off last week and haven’t played since August 31st.
