Week 6 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 7. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
Ohio State (-3.5, 53) at Oregon
Ohio State (5-0, ranked 2nd) just brushed aside Iowa 35-7, easily covering as 17.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon (5-0, ranked 3rd) just took down Michigan State 31-10 but failed to cover as 22.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Ohio State listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with powerhouse Ohio State. However, despite receiving 70% of spread bets we’ve seen Ohio State fall from -4 to -3.5. Several shops are even juicing up Oregon +3.5 (-115), signaling a possible further fall down to the key number of 3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Oregon, with pros grabbing the points with the Ducks and triggering line movement in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Oregon is one of the top contrarian plays of the week, receiving only 30% of spread bets in nationally televised primetime showdown at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. When two teams who rank in the Top 5 face off, the dog is 27-17 ATS (61%) with an 18% ROI since 2005. The Ducks are a buy-low, sell-high play as they failed to cover last week while Ohio State covered easily. Oregon also enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on Friday at home while Ohio State played on Saturday and now must travel to the Pacific Northwest. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total up from 51.5 to 53. The over is receiving 81% of bets and 84% of dollars, a heavy dose of Pro and Joe support. Weather shouldn’t be an issue, as the forecast calls for low 70s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
Iowa State (-3, 51) at West Virginia
Iowa State (5-0, ranked 11th) just dominated Baylor 43-21, cruising as 12.5-point home favorites. Similarly, West Virginia (3-2) just crushed Oklahoma State 38-14, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover with the Cyclones, who have the far better won-loss record and ranking. However, despite receiving 67% of spread bets we’ve seen Iowa State remain stagnant at -3. Anytime Iowa State creeps up with -3.5 we sharp buyback on West Virginia plus the hook, dropping it back down to 3. Reading between the lines, this signals sharp line freeze liability on West Virginia, with the oddsmakers reluctant to move the line further toward the popular Cyclones for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian Mountaineers backers. West Virginia is only receiving 33% of spread bets but 44% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Mountaineers have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, primetime 8 p.m. ET showdown on FOX. West Virginia has buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. The Mountaineers are also a conference dog system match, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Kansas State (-4, 56.5) at Colorado
Kansas State (4-1, ranked 18th) is coming off a bye after beating Oklahoma State 42-20, easily covering as 6-point home favorites. Similarly, Colorado (4-1) is also coming off a bye after just upsetting UCF 48-21, winning outright as 13-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas State listed as high as a 6-point road favorite. We quickly saw the line adjusted down to Kansas State -5.5 and now the line is down to -4. Some shops are even heading down to -3.5. Essentially, all movement and liability has come down in favor of Colorado plus the points. This movement is especially notable because the public is laying the points with Kansas State (56% of spread bets), yet the line is moving in favor of the unpopular Buffaloes. Colorado is only receiving 44% of spread bets in a nationally televised 10:15 p.m. ET game on ESPN, offering heightened contrarian value. The Buffaloes have value as a buy-low unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Colorado is a conference dog system match and also a “dog who can score” system match (31 PPG), thereby keeping pace or possibly backdoor covering. Colorado is in the rare position of being a contrarian dog, as typically the Buffaloes are a public darling receiving the lion’s share of support. The Buffaloes are 2-0 at home. Kansas State is 1-1 on the road.
