Week 14 of the College Football regular season is in the books and now we turn our attention to Week 15 Conference Championship games. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 10-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Ohio vs Miami Ohio (-2.5, 44.5)
This MAC Championship showdown will be played at Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions. Ohio (9-3) has won five straight and just crushed Ball State 42-21, covering as 18-point home favorites. Similarly, Miami Ohio (8-4) has won seven straight and just dismissed Bowling Green 28-12, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami Ohio listed as a short 1-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit short and they’ve laid the chalk with Miami Ohio, steaming the RedHawks up from -1 to -2.5. Some shops are even juicing up Miami Ohio -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible further rise up to the key number of -3. Miami Ohio is receiving 62% of spread bets but 86% of spread dollars at DraftKings, signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might prove to be a close game could elect to play Miami Ohio on the moneyline at -140. The RedHawks are taking in 66% of moneyline bets but 79% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of respected smart money playing Miami Ohio to win the game straight up. When two MAC teams face off, the favorite is 36-12 (75%) straight up this season. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44.5. The under is receiving only 33% of bets but a whopping 85% of dollars, a massive sharp contrarian bet split banking on a lower scoring game.
Penn State vs Oregon (-3.5, 49.5)
This Big Ten Championship game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Indianapolis Colts. Penn State (11-1, ranked 4th) has won four straight and just crushed Maryland 44-7, easily covering as 26.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oregon (12-0, ranked 1st) is the only undefeated team in the nation and just brushed aside Washington 49-21, covering as 17-point home favorites. This line opened with Oregon listed as a roughly 4-point neutral site favorite, with some shops opening Oregon as high as -4.5 and and low as -3.5. The public can’t believe this line is so low and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with the Ducks. However, despite receiving 88% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Oregon fall to -3.5 across the board. Normally if a team is receiving such lopsided support you would expect to see them tick up from -4 to -5. The fact that this line has either remained the same or moved toward Penn State signals a sharp line freeze and/or reverse line movement on the Nittany Lions plus the points. Penn State is the top “bet against the public” play on championship Saturday, as they are only receiving 12% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game at 8 pm ET on CBS. When two top 5 teams face off, the dog is 29-19 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2006. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 49.5. This dip is notable because the public is pounding the over (72% of bets), yet the total fell.
Georgia vs Texas (-2.5, 49.5)
This SEC Championship matchup will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, home of the Atlanta Falcons. Georgia (10-2, ranked 7th) has won three straight and just outlasted Georgia Tech 44-42 in 8 overtimes but failed to cover as 17-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas (11-1, ranked 3rd) has won five straight and just beat Texas A&M 17-7, covering as 4.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have laid the points with the Longhorns, steaming Texas up from -1.5 to -2.5. Several shops are juicing up Texas -2.5 (-115), signaling a possible further rise up to the key number of -3. The Longhorns are receiving 70% of spread bets and 82% of spread dollars at DraftKings, signaling both Pro and Joe support in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Pros also seem to be targeting Texas on the moneyline (-140), as they are taking in only 58% of moneyline bets but 74% of moneyline dollars. Both teams can put up points and are averaging roughly 34 PPG. However, Texas has a big edge defensively as they are only giving up 11.7 PPG while Georgia is allowing 20.5 PPG. This is also a revenge system match for the Longhorns, who suffered their only loss of the season against Georgia, falling 30-15 at home back in mid October. When two SEC teams face off, the favorite is 42-21 (67%) straight up this season.
