Tonight we have a pair of College Football Friday Night Lights matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
7:30 p.m. ET: Virginia Tech at Miami (-17.5, 54)
Virginia Tech (2-2) just fell to Rutgers 26-23 last week, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, Miami (4-0, ranked 7th) just crushed South Florida 50-15, easily covering as 16.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Miami listed as an early 14-point home favorite. This line quickly got adjusted up to Miami -17 and even topped out at -19.5 throughout the week. Regardless of the number, the public sees an easy blowout win and cover for Miami and currently 82% of spread bets are laying the points with the Hurricanes. However, since the line topped out at Miami -19.5 we’ve seen some sharp buyback on Virginia Tech at an inflated price, dropping the spread back down to -17.5 where it stands now. The Hokies are the top contrarian play of the night, receiving only 18% of spread bets in a nationally televised ESPN game. Virginia Tech also has buy-low value as an unranked conference dog against a sell-high ranked opponent, as well as a correlative betting double-digit dog in a relatively low total game (with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover).
Sharps seem to be eyeing a lower scoring game here, as we’ve seen the total fall from 56.5 to 54 despite the public hammering the over (74% of bets). Some books are even inching down to 53.5. The under is only receiving 26% of bets but 38% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for low 80s with cloudy skies and 8-10 MPH winds at Hard Rock Stadium.
8 p.m. ET: Washington at Rutgers (-1.5, 45)
Washington (3-1) just brushed aside Northwestern 24-5, covering as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Rutgers (3-0) just upset Virginia Tech 26-23, winning outright as 3-point road dogs.
This line opened with Rutgers listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short chalk with undefeated Rutgers at home. However, despite receiving 69% of spread bets we’ve seen Rutgers fall from -3 to -1.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already pounding Rutgers to begin with? Because respected pro money has sided with Washington plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Washington has notable “bet against the public” value, receiving only 31% of bets in a heavily bet primetime FOX game. Short road dogs +4 or less are 574-495 (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012. The Huskies have the edge on defense, allowing only 41 points this season compared to 47 points allowed by Rutgers. Friday Night road dogs are 8-2 ATS (80%) so far this season.
Wiseguys have also leaned under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45. This movement is notable because 74% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. The under is receiving 26% of bets but 35% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. The forecast calls for high 60s with cloudy skies and mild 5-7 MPH winds at SHI Stadium.
