Tonight the College Football Playoff Semifinals continue as Ohio State faces Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
7:30 p.m. ET: Ohio State (-6, 52.5) vs Texas
This Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic showdown will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Ohio State (12-2) is the 8-seed and just crushed Oregon 41-21 in the quarterfinals, easily covering as 2.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Texas (13-2) is the 5-seed and just edged Arizona State 39-31 in overtime in the quarterfinals but failed to cover as 13.5-point neutral site favorites.
The early opener for this game was Ohio State -4.5. We quickly saw the Buckeyes shoot up to -6.5. However, once the hook was available there was some sharp buyback on Texas +6.5, dropping the line back down to Ohio State -6 where it rests on gameday. While the line movement has risen and come back down, one constant has remained the same: the public expects an Ohio State blowout and is hammering the Buckeyes minus the points.
At DraftKings, Ohio State is receiving 78% of spread bets. At Circa, the Buckeyes are taking in 73% of spread bets. As a result, the Longhorns are providing notable contrarian value as they are only taking in roughly one-quarter of tickets in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPN. At Circa, Texas is only receiving 27% of spread bets but a whopping 68% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of wiseguys out in Vegas backing the unpopular inflated dog. Texas has additional buy-low value as a team who failed to cover and nearly lost to Arizona State against a sell-high Ohio State team that has easily dominated and covered as a favorite in both of their playoff appearances.
As always, bettors should pay close attention to late movement on gameday, especially as we sit on the key number of 6. Gameday action is always important because it takes place when the limits are raised and the biggest bets come in. If we see this line rise back up to 6.5 between now and kickoff, that will indicate late money breaking toward the Buckeyes. However, if we see it fall down toward 5.5 that will be a sign that wiseguys are breaking toward the underdog Longhorns.
Pros are also leaning under, as the total has dipped from as high as 54.5 down to 52.5. Late breaking smart money has sided with the under on gameday, as the total has fallen from 53.5 to 52.5 over the past 24-hours specifically. Some shops are even inching down to 52. At DraftKings, the under is only receiving 26% of bets but 44% of dollars. Meanwhile, at Circa the under is taking 31% of bets but a massive 95% of dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” smart money bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
