Merry Christmas Eve! Tonight we have one college football bowl game to get down on as South Florida faces San Jose State in the Hawaii Bowl. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
8 p.m. ET: South Florida vs. San Jose State (-2.5, 65)
South Florida (6-6) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Rice 35-28 and losing outright as 5.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, San Jose State (7-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 34-31 win over Stanford, covering as 2.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with San Jose State listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is laying the points with San Jose State, as they are taking in 64% of spread bets at DraftKings. This lopsided support drove San Jose State up from -2.5 to -3. However, once we reached the key number of 3 we saw sharp buyback on South Florida, dropping the line back down to 2.5. Essentially, late gameday movement is coming back toward South Florida plus the points. At DraftKings, South Florida is only receiving 36% of spread bets but 61% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. South Florida also has notable “bet against the public” value as this is a nationally televised game on Christmas Eve and the Bulls are only taking in roughly one-third of tickets.
San Jose State will be without star WR Nick Nash, who opted out of this game in favor of entering the NFL Draft. Nash led the Spartans with 104 receptions for 1,382 yards and 16 touchdowns. Meanwhile, South Florida may get a boost as former starting QB Byrum Brown has been upgraded to questionable and might suit up for the Bulls. Brown has been out since suffering an injury in Week 5 against Tulane.
We could also be looking at a shootout here, as the total has been steamed up from 62.5 to 65. It reached as high as 65.5 before some inflated line under buyback dropped it back down to 65. At DraftKings, the over is receiving only 49% of bets but 69% of dollars, indicating an undecided public but also heavy smart money on a higher scoring game. Both teams have the ability to put up points, as South Florida is averaging 31.4 PPG and San Jose State is averaging 27.5 PPG. On defense, the Spartans are giving up 26.4 PPG while the Bulls are allowing 29 PPG. South Florida is one of the fastest teams in the nation, ranking 7th in pace of play. The weather looks perfect in Hawaii, as the forecast calls for low 80s and mild 8 MPH winds.
