Tonight we have a Tuesday doubleheader of College Football action to kick off Week 9. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CFB Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
7:30 p.m. ET: Sam Houston State (-4.5, 46.5) at FIU
Sam Houston State (5-2) just saw their four-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Western Kentucky 31-14 and losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, FIU (2-5) has dropped four of their last five games and just came up short against UTEP 30-21, losing outright as 7-point road favorites.
This line opened with Sam Houston State listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with Sam Houston State, who has a far better won-loss record. However, despite receiving 82% of spread bets we’ve seen Sam Houston fall from -6.5 to -4.5. A big reason for this adjustment is the health of Sam Houston QB Hunter Watson, who is questionable to play with an injury. If he can’t go, backup Jace Bauer is expected to get the start. FIU has notable contrarian value as they are only receiving 18% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game on ESPNU. FIU also has value as a “dog who can score” system match (26 PPG), thereby keeping pace or back door covering.
The total opened at 45.5 and rose to 47. That’s when we saw some under buyback hit the market, dropping the line back down to 46.5. The over is receiving 78% of bets but only 65% of dollars. The forecast calls for high 70s with partly cloudy skies and 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.
8 p.m. ET: UTEP and Louisiana Tech (-6.5, 49)
UTEP (1-6) just won their first game of the season last week, taking down FIU 30-21 as 7-point home dogs. Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech (2-4) has dropped four of their last five games and just came up short against against New Mexico State 33-30 in overtime, losing outright as 12.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Louisiana Tech listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is all over Louisiana Tech laying a touchdown at home. However, despite receiving 82% of spread bets we’ve seen Louisiana Tech fall from -7 to -6.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on UTEP, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the highly unpopular side. UTEP has notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 18% of spread bets in a heavily bet game on CBSSN. UTEP has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points. UTEP also has correlative betting value as a near touchdown dog in a low total game (49), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50.5 to 49. Some shops are even inching down to 48.5. This movement is especially significant because 65% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. The forecast calls for low 70s with clear skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
